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The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, popularized by pseudonymous analyst PlanB, links Bitcoin's scarcity to its price by comparing the existing supply (stock) to the annual production (flow). According to the model, the current halving cycle from 2024 to 2028 could see Bitcoin averaging around $500,000, implying that the price may spend significant time above that level during the cycle. Recent price action has seen Bitcoin rebound to the $70,000 range, prompting debate over whether the cryptocurrency is undervalued relative to the S2F projection or if the model is losing relevance.
PlanB's S2F model predicts an average Bitcoin price of about $500,000 during the 2024‑2028 halving cycle.
The projection is based on a staircase‑like price path that assumes the model continues to hold after the 2024 halving.
Bitcoin's recent price movements have returned to the $70,000 level, testing the model's valuation assumptions.
The model suggests that Bitcoin could spend meaningful time above $500,000, not just reach that level briefly.
It measures Bitcoin's scarcity by dividing the total existing supply (stock) by the annual new supply (flow) and relates this ratio to price expectations.
The model forecasts an average price of roughly $500,000 for Bitcoin during the 2024‑2028 halving period, with a dotted path indicating that level around 2027.
Bitcoin's recent rebound to about $70,000 is being used to assess whether the cryptocurrency is undervalued relative to the S2F projection or if the model may be breaking down.
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