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Bitcoin Stock to Flow ratio sits at 116.7, showing extreme scarcity. Learn how the metric is calculated, its predictive track record and key drawbacks for
Bitcoin’s Stock‑to‑Flow (S2F) ratio stands at 116.7, derived from roughly 19.17 million BTC already mined versus an annual inflow of 191,250 BTC [1]. This high ratio signals extreme scarcity and underpins the model that links Bitcoin’s price to its limited supply.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| S2F ratio | 116.7 |
| Stock (circulating BTC) | 19.171 million |
| Annual flow (new BTC) | 191,250 |
| Catalyst for model | Halving‑driven supply cuts |
The S2F metric divides the total existing supply (“stock”) by the yearly creation of new units (“flow”). For Bitcoin, the stock equals the cumulative mined coins, currently just over 19.2 million out of a 21‑million cap [1]. Flow is calculated from the block reward of 3.125 BTC every 10 minutes, which translates to about 191,250 new BTC each year. The resulting ratio of 116.7 is far higher than gold’s 62.3, implying that Bitcoin would need roughly 117 years of mining to double its existing supply [1].
Proponents cite a strong historical correlation: from 2015 through the end of 2021, the S2F curve tracked Bitcoin’s price rise, even as the asset hit an all‑time high of $69,000 in November 2021 [1]. However, the model missed price movements in 2011, 2013, and after the 2021 peak, when Bitcoin fell sharply and diverged from the S2F line [1]. Critics point to the model’s simplicity—it only considers stock and flow, ignoring market sentiment, macro news, and sudden shocks such as the “black‑Wednesday” crash on 19 May 2021 [2]. The model also failed to predict the 2022 price ceiling, overestimating a $100,000 target [1].
Plan B, the analyst who popularized the model, projected Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 by the end of 2021 and reach $1 million by 2025 [2]. These forecasts assume the S2F ratio continues to rise as halving events halve the flow every four years, theoretically driving price up tenfold each cycle [2].
The S2F ratio offers a clear, scarcity‑focused lens on Bitcoin’s valuation, yet its predictive power is limited by the model’s narrow focus and the market’s volatility. Whether future halvings will restore its historical alignment remains an open question.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 2 outlets · Jul 30, 2026 · How we report
Stock To Flow is not a single term, but rather a comparison between two distinct types of variables: a stock, which is a quantity existing at a specific moment, and a flow, which is a rate of change measured over a period of time. These variables are measured in different units and cannot be added together, though their ratio can be used to calculate metrics like turnover or time-based projections.
Stock To Flow concepts function as the basic building blocks of system dynamics models, where a stock acts as a level variable that accumulates over time based on inflows and outflows. Flows act as rates that change the value of the stock, and the relationship between them is often represented through calculus where the stock is the integral of the flow.
The distinction between Stock To Flow is critical because confusing the two can lead to analytical errors in economic theory, a problem historically criticized by economists like Michał Kalecki. Properly identifying these variables allows for the meaningful calculation of ratios, such as the velocity of money or the time required to pay off debt.