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Stock to Flow ratio sits at 116.7, Bitcoin trades under $50,000 and PlanB still forecasts $200k. Find out why the model’s credibility for 2025 is under debate.
Bitcoin’s price is hovering below $50,000, while the Stock‑to‑Flow (S2F) scarcity ratio stands at roughly 116.7 – a level that, according to PlanB, still underpins a $200,000 price target for the cryptocurrency in the coming years【2】. The gap between the model’s long‑term projection and today’s market price fuels a fresh debate over whether S2F remains a reliable forecasting tool as we approach 2025【1】.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin price | < $50,000 |
| S2F ratio | 116.7 |
| PlanB’s price target | $200,000 |
| Model’s relevance for 2025 | contested |
The S2F framework quantifies scarcity by dividing the total existing supply (stock) by the annual inflow of new coins (flow). For Bitcoin, the fixed supply caps at 21 million, with about 19.2 million already mined. Annual mining rewards of 3.125 BTC per block translate to roughly 191,250 BTC per year, yielding the current S2F ratio of 116.7【2】. The model plots this ratio on a log‑log chart against price, producing a straight‑line trend that historically aligned with Bitcoin’s rally from 2015 through late 2021【2】.
PlanB continues to argue that the price dip to sub‑$50,000 levels presents a buying opportunity and that Bitcoin will eventually climb to $200,000, as the scarcity metric rises with each halving【1】. Critics, however, point to the model’s failure to anticipate major market shifts after the 2021 peak, noting that Bitcoin’s price diverged from the S2F curve in late 2021 and again during the 2022‑2023 downturn【1】【2】. They also highlight that the model ignores variables such as macro‑economic shocks, regulatory changes, and the growing competition from other crypto assets, all of which can dampen Bitcoin’s dominance and price trajectory【1】.
The S2F curve is typically plotted only out to around 2026, beyond which extrapolations become speculative【1】. If the linear relationship held, the model would suggest Bitcoin could breach $100,000 by 2026 and potentially approach $200,000 thereafter. Yet the recent price action, coupled with a broader crypto market that now includes numerous high‑profile projects, raises doubts about the model’s ability to capture future dynamics【1】.
The S2F model remains a compelling illustration of Bitcoin’s scarcity, but its predictive power for 2025 is increasingly contested. Whether the ratio alone can drive Bitcoin to $200,000 or whether new market forces will render the model obsolete remains an open question.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 2 outlets · Jun 25, 2026 · How we report
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