Bitcoin stock-to-flow ratio shows 93% undervaluation vs model price

Bitcoin’s stock‑to‑flow (S2F) ratio is 120.55, implying a model price of $866,721, yet the market trades around $62,382—a 92.8% deviation that signals a deep undervaluation by the Plan B scarcity model [1].

Current scarcity snapshot

The calculator uses Bitcoin’s circulating supply of roughly 19.85 million coins and an annual flow of 164,250 BTC (3.125 BTC per block × 144 blocks/day) to compute the S2F ratio [1]. At 120.5, Bitcoin’s scarcity is comparable to gold’s ratio of about 60, but the model’s power‑law fit projects a price far above today’s market level. The 92.8% negative deviation is the largest recorded gap since the model’s inception, highlighting the limited predictive power of the S2F curve in the short term.

Post‑halving projection

If the next halving reduces flow to 82,125 BTC per year, the S2F ratio would double to 241.1, pushing the model price to $8,020,210 – an uplift of roughly 825% over the current model price [1]. This theoretical jump underscores how the model treats each halving as a scarcity shock, but it also warns that past correlation does not guarantee future outcomes.

Context from the real‑time chart

The TradingDigits chart overlays Bitcoin’s price on its S2F line, marking days until the next halving and smoothing the ratio with a 365‑day average [2]. The visual history shows price spikes aligning with past halving events, yet the current price remains far below the S2F trajectory, reinforcing the model’s historical lag.

What to watch

• Price thresholds: $70,000 and $100,000 levels could test the model’s relevance if Bitcoin rallies toward the S2F curve.
• Halving timeline: Monitor the block count; the next halving is expected after 210,000 additional blocks, roughly four years from the last event.
• On‑chain flow: Track new BTC issuance; a drop to ~82,000 BTC/year would double the S2F ratio and reshape the model price.

The stark gap between Bitcoin’s actual price and its S2F‑derived valuation raises the question of whether scarcity alone can drive price, or if demand, macro factors, and market sentiment will continue to dominate.