River Financial adds Bitcoin Stock‑to‑Flow model to its research suite

River Financial announced that its research platform now includes PlanB’s Bitcoin Stock‑to‑Flow (S2F) model, a scarcity‑based framework that links the existing Bitcoin supply (“stock”) to the annual new issuance (“flow”) to project long‑term price levels [1]. The addition gives institutional and retail clients a quantitative tool that has become a reference point for many market participants, especially when evaluating the impact of upcoming halving events.

How the S2F model works

PlanB’s S2F framework treats Bitcoin like a commodity such as gold, where scarcity is a primary driver of value [2]. The model calculates the ratio of the total existing Bitcoin (the “stock”) to the number of new bitcoins mined each year (the “flow”). Because the Bitcoin protocol halves the block reward roughly every four years, the flow component drops sharply, causing the ratio to climb and, according to the model, supporting higher price levels. The S2F curve is overlaid on price charts, and historically Bitcoin’s market price has tended to follow the model’s trajectory, though deviations have occurred during market stress [2].

Why River Financial’s inclusion matters

River Financial’s research suite previously focused on traditional fundamentals and on‑chain analytics. By integrating the S2F model, the firm now offers a supply‑side perspective that complements demand‑side metrics such as the Network Value‑to‑Transactions (NVT) ratio and Metcalfe’s Law, which are commonly used for Ethereum [3]. The move signals that River Financial acknowledges the continued relevance of scarcity‑based models for Bitcoin price forecasting, especially as the next halving approaches and the S2F ratio is set to increase again.

What to watch

• 2024 Bitcoin halving – Scheduled for early 2024, the event will halve the block reward, raising the S2F ratio and potentially shifting the model’s price curve upward.
• S2F price curve breaches – Monitor whether Bitcoin’s market price stays above or falls below the S2F projected line, which could indicate a divergence between market sentiment and scarcity fundamentals.
• River Financial research updates – Look for any new commentary from River Financial that contextualises S2F projections with on‑chain activity or macro‑economic factors.

River Financial’s adoption of the S2F model underscores the growing appetite for scarcity‑driven analytics in crypto research, but the model’s predictive power remains debated, especially after notable mismatches during the 2022 bear market. The real test will be how Bitcoin’s price behaves around the upcoming halving and whether the S2F curve continues to align with market movements.