Loading article…
Bitcoin trades around $57,000, far below the Stock‑to‑Flow model’s $100,000 year‑end target. Learn the model’s basics, current supply stats, and what could
Bitcoin is trading at roughly $57,000, about half of the $100,000 price level that the Stock‑to‑Flow (S2F) model still uses as its benchmark for year‑end validation [2]. The gap underscores why the model’s relevance is being debated as BTC hovers below the milestone that would keep the framework “intact.”
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Price | $57,000 |
| 24‑h change | +0.3 % (approx.) |
| Model target | $100,000 by year‑end |
| Supply (stock) | >19 million BTC [1] |
| Flow (annual new BTC) | ~0.9 million (halving‑adjusted) [1] |
The S2F ratio is calculated by dividing the existing stock of an asset by the yearly flow of new units. For Bitcoin the “stock” is the total mined and circulating supply—currently just over 19 million [1]—while the “flow” is the number of new coins created each year, which falls after each halving (the block reward halves roughly every four years) [1]. A higher ratio implies greater scarcity and, historically, higher prices. PlanB popularised the model in 2019, linking past price moves to the S2F ratio and projecting future price levels, including a $100,000 benchmark that would need to be reached before the end of the year [2].
At the time of writing Bitcoin’s price of $57,000 is well below the $100,000 threshold, a shortfall that PlanB himself noted would have invalidated the model earlier in the year [2]. Nevertheless, he argues the model remains “intact” because the price can still average above $100,000 over the post‑halving period, allowing the under‑performance to be recouped [2]. Critics point out that the S2F framework ignores a host of other drivers—sentiment, regulatory risk, macro‑economic conditions, and technological developments—that have historically caused large price swings [1]. Moreover, the model’s “floor” variant, which previously forecasted worst‑case scenarios, missed its November prediction by a wide margin, ending under $60,000 instead of the expected $98,000 [2].
Bitcoin’s supply growth is tightly constrained by the halving schedule: every 210,000 blocks (about four years) the block reward is cut in half, reducing the annual flow and raising the S2F ratio. With more than 19 million coins already mined, the remaining supply to be issued is capped at 21 million, meaning future flow will continue to shrink, a key premise of the model [1]. However, on‑chain activity, large‑wallet movements, and macro‑level demand shifts can cause price deviations that the S2F ratio alone cannot explain.
The S2F model remains a focal point for Bitcoin analysts, but its predictive power hinges on whether price can close the gap to $100,000 before the year ends. The coming halving and on‑chain dynamics will test whether scarcity alone can drive Bitcoin’s next price cycle.
Coverage is mostly measured — 65 of 76 reports stay neutral.
Every Monday — the token unlocks, Fed dates & catalysts set to move crypto and markets this week. So you’re never blindsided.
Free · 3-min read · one-click unsubscribe
AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 4 outlets · Jun 27, 2026 · How we report
A higher S2F ratio means the asset's existing supply is large relative to its annual new production, implying greater scarcity and potentially a premium over time.
Each halving cuts the annual flow of new bitcoins in half, which roughly doubles Bitcoin's S2F ratio and signals increased scarcity.
Critiques focus on its omission of demand factors, sensitivity to regime shifts, and tendency to overfit historical price patterns.
Yes, it originated with commodities like gold and silver and can be applied to any asset with a predictable, limited issuance, though demand still drives price.
Sources describe it as a scarcity lens rather than a price oracle; it should be combined with other metrics and risk controls for investment decisions.