Bitcoin price near $71k as S2F model projects $500k average by 2028

Bitcoin reclaimed the $70,000 level on March 10, 2026, hovering near $71,000, while PlanB’s Stock‑to‑Flow (S2F) model still projects an average price of roughly $500,000 for the 2024‑2028 halving cycle—a gap that fuels a split among analysts over Bitcoin’s valuation relevance【1】.

Model clash: S2F vs. Rainbow Chart

PlanB’s S2F framework ties Bitcoin’s price to its scarcity, suggesting that the post‑halving cycle from 2024 through 2028 could average around $500,000, with the dotted path hitting that level in 2027【1】. The model does not predict an immediate jump; instead it implies sustained periods above the average as the cycle progresses. By contrast, the long‑running Bitcoin Rainbow Chart—a logarithmic regression of price cycles—has just fallen below its lowest band into the “Bitcoin Is Dead” zone around $62,500, a level seen only once before (in 2022)【2】. The breach represents a 50% drop from the October 2025 peak of $126,000, prompting analysts to question whether historic sentiment bands still apply in a market now dominated by ETFs and institutional capital【2】.

On‑chain context and market sentiment

Current on‑chain data shows roughly 43% of Bitcoin addresses are in loss, dominated by short‑term holders and corporate treasuries, indicating that a sizable portion of the market may still be vulnerable to further downside【1】. Yet the price sits just above two structural supports—the realized cost price and the 200‑week moving average—both highlighted in PlanB’s chart, suggesting the broader cycle structure has not collapsed outright【1】. The Rainbow Chart’s breach has been interpreted by some as a sign of extreme fear rather than a terminal decline; historically, similar “dead” zones have preceded recoveries, though the model’s predictive power is increasingly questioned as market dynamics evolve【2】.

Market reaction and divergent views

Analysts are divided. Markus Levin (co‑founder, XYO) sees the Rainbow Chart’s failure as evidence that the model is obsolete, not that Bitcoin is dead, arguing that the asset’s maturation renders old four‑year boom‑and‑bust patterns less relevant【2】. Conversely, Ryan Lee (chief analyst, Bitget) maintains the chart remains a useful visual tool for sentiment but cautions against treating it as a forecast【2】. The S2F model, once a cornerstone of Bitcoin valuation, now appears out of step with current price action, as Bitcoin trades well below its $500,000 average projection despite recent price recoveries above $70,000【3】.

What to watch

• $62,500–$70,000 range – monitor whether Bitcoin can hold above the Rainbow Chart’s “dead” zone and re‑test the $70,000 support.
• 2027 S2F target – the model’s dotted path points to $500,000 in 2027; price movements toward that trajectory will test the model’s relevance.
• On‑chain loss ratio – shifts in the proportion of addresses in loss (currently ~43%) could signal changing holder sentiment.

The clash between the S2F projection and the Rainbow Chart breach underscores a broader question: as institutional participation reshapes Bitcoin’s market structure, will traditional scarcity‑based models retain predictive value, or will new metrics become the barometer for long‑term price expectations?