Loading article…
Vitalik Buterin slams the Bitcoin stock‑to‑flow price model as “false” and “harmful” after BTC slipped to $20,845, far below the model’s $67,175 target
Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum co‑founder, labeled the Bitcoin stock‑to‑flow (S2F) model “false” and “harmful” on June 21, 2022, after Bitcoin traded around $20,845—well under the S2F forecast of $67,175 for mid‑June and far from the model’s 2022 $100‑110 k range [1][3].
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Price | $20,845 |
| 24h change | – ≈ 2 % (price fell from just above $20,000) |
| Model target missed | $67,175 (S2F forecast for June 18) |
| Catalyst | Buterin’s public criticism of S2F model |
Buterin’s tweet echoed EthHub co‑founder Anthony Sassano, who called the S2F model “an epic failure.” The model, created by analyst PlanB, links Bitcoin’s circulating supply (“stock”) to the annual mining rate (“flow”) and has historically suggested that scarcity drives price up. Its 2022 projection of $100‑110 k has been invalidated by the market’s 18‑month low under $20 k [1]. PlanB himself admitted the model “enjoyed a good run” until March 2022 before deviating from its trajectory [1].
Bitcoin’s price drop to $20,845 occurred amid a broader crypto market slump, with the asset losing roughly 80 % of its 2021 peak. The S2F ratio, which rose sharply after each halving, has not translated into price gains this cycle, prompting analysts to question its predictive power. No new supply unlocks or major on‑chain events were cited as drivers of the price move; the primary narrative is the mismatch between the model’s expectations and actual market behavior [1][3].
PlanB responded to Buterin’s critique by suggesting that the market’s downturn could lead some investors to seek “scapegoats” for poor outcomes, while also noting that Bitcoin might be “extremely undervalued” and could rebound, or that S2F may simply lose relevance [1].
Buterin’s dismissal underscores a growing skepticism toward deterministic price models in crypto, especially as Bitcoin’s actual price diverges sharply from S2F projections. Whether the model will adapt or fade remains an open question for analysts and investors alike.
Coverage is mostly measured — 123 of 134 reports stay neutral.
Every Monday — the token unlocks, Fed dates & catalysts set to move crypto and markets this week. So you’re never blindsided.
Free · 3-min read · one-click unsubscribe
AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 3 outlets · Jul 30, 2026 · How we report
Stock To Flow is not a single term, but rather a comparison between two distinct types of variables: a stock, which is a quantity existing at a specific moment, and a flow, which is a rate of change measured over a period of time. These variables are measured in different units and cannot be added together, though their ratio can be used to calculate metrics like turnover or time-based projections.
Stock To Flow concepts function as the basic building blocks of system dynamics models, where a stock acts as a level variable that accumulates over time based on inflows and outflows. Flows act as rates that change the value of the stock, and the relationship between them is often represented through calculus where the stock is the integral of the flow.
The distinction between Stock To Flow is critical because confusing the two can lead to analytical errors in economic theory, a problem historically criticized by economists like Michał Kalecki. Properly identifying these variables allows for the meaningful calculation of ratios, such as the velocity of money or the time required to pay off debt.