Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model Price Predictions and Accuracy

Bitcoin is currently trading near $64,000, a level that places the asset roughly 49 percent below its October 6, 2025, record high of $126,080 [4]. This performance has intensified scrutiny of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, a valuation framework that suggests Bitcoin’s price is fundamentally driven by its scarcity relative to its annual production [2, 4].

The mechanics of scarcity

The S2F model, created by a pseudonymous Dutch institutional investor known as PlanB, quantifies scarcity by dividing an asset's total existing supply (stock) by the amount produced annually (flow) [2, 3]. While the model was originally applied to commodities like gold and silver, it gained prominence in crypto for its application to Bitcoin’s unique supply schedule [2, 3]. Because Bitcoin’s block subsidy halves approximately every four years, the model argues that the asset’s "flow" decreases sharply, theoretically forcing the price upward as the S2F ratio climbs [2].

Following the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s S2F ratio reached approximately 119, a figure that proponents claim makes the asset scarcer than gold, which sits at a ratio of roughly 62 [4]. Despite this mathematical increase in scarcity, the model has faced persistent criticism for its historical misses and its reliance on the assumption that past price correlations will dictate future performance [2, 4]. Critics argue that the model ignores external factors such as market demand, macroeconomic catalysts, and changing investor narratives [2].

Testing the model’s limits

The current market cycle is past its midpoint, leaving a limited window for the S2F model to align with actual price action before the next halving event [4]. While the model continues to project a valuation of approximately $770,000, the significant divergence between this figure and the current $64,000 price point has led some observers to question whether the model has reached its limit [4].

Because the S2F model is designed to be a visual and simple tool, it has maintained a following despite repeated periods of volatility where the price failed to track the projected upward trend [4]. However, the model’s reliance on a single equation to predict future value remains a point of contention among analysts who emphasize that supply is only one component of an asset's price discovery [2].

What to watch

• Cycle Midpoint Performance: Monitor whether Bitcoin’s price trends toward the S2F-implied levels as the market moves through the latter half of the 2024–2028 halving cycle [4].
• Model Falsification: Watch for further divergence between the model’s projected price and market reality, which may provide a clearer indication of whether the S2F framework retains predictive utility [4].

Whether the S2F model serves as a reliable indicator or a flawed projection remains an open question, as the market continues to weigh the impact of programmed scarcity against broader economic forces. The coming months will determine if the model’s "testable window" yields a recovery toward its projected targets or further confirms the limitations of supply-based valuation in volatile markets [4].