Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Calculator shows 92% undervaluation vs model

Bitcoin’s Stock‑to‑Flow (S2F) calculator on CryptoCalk lists the current ratio at 120.55, generating a model price of $866,721 versus the live price of $62,156 – a 92.8% deviation that signals the market is far below the scarcity‑based estimate [1]. The gap matters because the model’s historical fit (≈95% R²) has been a reference point for analysts, even as recent price moves have diverged sharply.

How the calculator works

The tool divides Bitcoin’s existing supply (≈19.8 million coins) by the annual new issuance of roughly 164,250 BTC (3.125 BTC per block × 144 blocks/day) to produce the S2F ratio. It then applies PlanB’s power‑law formula — Price = 0.18 × (S/F)^3.3 — to map that ratio to a “model price” [2]. With a ratio of 120.55 the formula yields a price near $866k, far above the current market level. The calculator also projects the effect of the upcoming 2024 halving: halving the flow to ~82,125 BTC/year doubles the ratio to 241.1 and lifts the model price to about $8 million, an implied uplift of over 800% [1].

Context and recent performance

Bitcoin’s S2F has historically hovered in the mid‑50s before each halving and roughly doubled afterward, mirroring gold’s ratio of ~60. The CryptoCalk page notes that the S2F model “has historically tracked BTC’s macro price trajectory, though short‑term deviations are common” [1]. The Bitcoin.com chart corroborates a current S2F of 121.4 and a model price of $648,720, still well above the last traded price of $61,473, reinforcing the sizable undervaluation gap [2]. Both sources agree the model’s predictive power weakened after 2022, with actual prices falling 70% below the curve and remaining there for months.

Model limits and usage

Both calculators stress that the S2F output is theoretical and should be used for education, not forecasting. The CryptoCalk guide warns that treating the model price as a target ignores demand, regulation, and macro factors, and that large deviations (beyond ±50%) often signal a decoupling rather than an imminent correction [1]. The Bitcoin.com chart notes a 95% fit quality historically, but the recent divergence highlights the model’s reduced reliability in the current cycle.

What to watch

• Post‑halving S2F shift: When the 2024 halving reduces flow to ~82k BTC/year, the ratio will jump to ~241, potentially reshaping the model price curve.
• Actual price vs. model gap: Monitor whether Bitcoin’s market price narrows the -92.8% deviation or widens further, which will test the model’s relevance.
• On‑chain supply growth: Updates to the circulating supply (e.g., approaching the 21 million cap) will adjust the S2F ratio and model outputs.

The stark gap between Bitcoin’s market price and its S2F‑derived model price underscores a persistent debate: whether scarcity alone can drive valuation or if demand‑side dynamics now dominate. As the next halving approaches, the calculator will show whether the theoretical uplift materialises or remains a speculative benchmark.