Agri Minister asks States to prepare for below-normal monsoon

Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has directed state governments to prepare for potential deficient rainfall and adverse weather conditions, citing the threat of El Niño and a revised India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast [1]. The IMD now projects the June-September southwest monsoon rainfall at 90% of the long-period average (LPA), a downgrade from its April estimate of 92% [1]. Chouhan emphasized that while the situation is not yet certain, the central government is developing contingency plans to handle any delay in the monsoon or prolonged dry spells [1].

Key takeaways

• The IMD forecasts the southwest monsoon at 90% of the long-period average, with a model error of ±4% [1].
• The government holds 192 lakh quintals of seeds against a requirement of 173 lakh quintals for the upcoming Kharif season [1].
• Fertilizer stocks stand at 200 lakh tonnes, while the total demand for the season is 390 lakh tonnes [1].
• Chouhan urged states to prepare district-level contingency plans and intensify inspections against spurious seeds and pesticides [1].

Revised monsoon forecast drives contingency planning

Speaking at the conclusion of the National Agriculture Conference – Kharif Campaign 2026, Chouhan highlighted the risks posed by El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by abnormal warming of eastern Pacific Ocean waters that often leads to weaker monsoons and drought-like conditions in India [1]. He urged states to remain prepared at the district level for low rainfall and other difficult conditions, asserting that the Agriculture Ministry is fully equipped to tackle any eventuality [1]. The minister also called for the creation of state-specific agricultural roadmaps based on local agro-climatic conditions and resources [1].

To support the upcoming Kharif season beginning in June, the government reported sufficient stocks of critical agricultural inputs. Current seed stocks total 192 lakh quintals against a requirement of 173 lakh quintals, with the National Seed Corporation maintaining a buffer stock of 1.74 lakh quintals for emergencies [1]. Additionally, fertilizer stocks are reported at 200 lakh tonnes against a seasonal demand of 390 lakh tonnes [1]. Chouhan stressed the importance of timely distribution to farmers and transparency in the supply chain to prevent black marketeering [1].

Why it matters

The Kharif season is crucial for India's summer-sown crops, and a deficit monsoon could impact agricultural output and water availability. The government's focus on short-duration crop varieties for pulses and oilseeds, alongside balanced fertilizer use campaigns, aims to mitigate climate risks [1]. Furthermore, Chouhan noted that while agricultural credit flow has improved in some regions, eastern and north-eastern India continue to lag, prompting upcoming discussions with banks to expand access to finance for farmers [1].