TrendTracers Bitcoin Stock‑to‑Flow indicator on TradingView

The TrendTracers Bitcoin Stock‑to‑Flow (S2F) indicator went live on TradingView, giving chartists a built‑in way to compare Bitcoin’s circulating stock against its yearly mining flow and see how far price deviates from the model line [1].

How the model works

The S2F indicator treats Bitcoin like “store‑of‑value” commodities (gold, silver, platinum) whose scarcity drives price. It calculates yearly mining flow by scaling the recent stock change to a 365‑day year, then derives the stock‑to‑flow ratio as (stock – missing bitcoins) ÷ yearly flow. The model price is generated by the formula ‑1.84ᵉ × (stock‑to‑flow)³·³⁶ [1]. Users can toggle between an oscillator view (default) and an overlay, switch a standard‑deviation multiplier (1‑3×), and add a “1‑year realized price” graph that plots realized market cap per generated coin.

Context and criticism

PlanB’s original S2F model linked Bitcoin’s price to its shrinking supply, correctly tracking peaks around the 2013, 2017 and 2021 cycles [3]. However, after the 2024 halving the model projected a price near $500 k, while Bitcoin peaked at about $126 k in October 2025—a miss of roughly 75 % [3]. Critics argue the model’s reliance on supply alone makes it increasingly unreliable, especially as price has now fallen below the “dead” zone of the related rainbow chart, trading near $62 k [3]. The TrendTracers indicator therefore serves more as a visual reference than a predictive tool; its deviation ratio simply flags how far current price sits from the historical S2F line.

What to watch

• Price vs. S2F line – Monitor whether Bitcoin’s price moves back toward a deviation ratio of 0, which would suggest alignment with the model.
• Upcoming halving cycles – The next halving (expected 2028) will halve yearly flow again, shifting the S2F ratio and potentially resetting the model price.
• Realized price overlay – Changes in the 1‑year realized price can highlight shifts in on‑chain activity that may precede price moves.

The TrendTracers S2F indicator adds a quantitative lens to Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative, but its predictive power remains contested. As price continues to test extreme‑value zones, the key question is whether the S2F deviation will narrow, reviving confidence in a supply‑driven valuation, or stay wide, reinforcing doubts about the model’s relevance.