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Bitcoin S2F ratio now over 120 after April 2024 halving, price topped $100k in 2024, model’s forecasts vs actual performance tracked to Oct 2025.
Bitcoin’s stock‑to‑flow (S2F) ratio surged past 120 following the April 2024 halving, while the market price broke the $100,000 barrier for the first time, reigniting debate over the model’s predictive power versus its historical misses【1†L31-L38】【2†L13-L20】.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| S2F ratio | >120 (≈ twice gold’s) |
| Price peak 2024 | $100,000+ |
| 2025 price (Oct) | $126,000 |
| Catalyst | April 2024 halving cut block reward to 3.125 BTC |
PlanB introduced the Bitcoin S2F model in March 2019, regressing market cap against the scarcity metric and reporting an R‑squared of 0.94‑0.95, implying that over 94 % of price variance was explained by supply scarcity alone【1†L15-L22】【2†L7-L9】. The framework gained traction because Bitcoin’s halving schedule—reducing new issuance every four years—creates predictable jumps in the S2F ratio: from ~11 pre‑2012, to ~25 after 2016, to ~56 post‑2020, and finally above 100 after the 2024 event【1†L27-L33】. This scarcity narrative matched gold’s S2F of ~60, bolstering the view that Bitcoin could become a “digital gold.”
The original S2F forecast projected $100,000‑$288,000 by the end of the 2020‑2024 cycle, yet Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 in November 2021 and then slumped to roughly $16,000 by late 2022—far below the model’s target【1†L41-L45】【2†L13-L16】. Analysts note the model’s omission of demand factors; the 2022 price collapse coincided with higher rates, the Terra/LUNA crash, and the FTX fallout, none of which the S2F equation accounts for【1†L49-L53】. Statistical critiques also flag spurious correlation and over‑fitting, given that both price and S2F are upward‑trending series【1†L55-L58】.
The April 2024 halving halved the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, pushing the S2F ratio from ~57 to ~120 and theoretically making Bitcoin the most scarce tradable asset【2†L13-L15】. Prices responded with a new all‑time high above $100,000 in 2024, aligning with the model’s directional premise that halvings precede bull runs. However, the specific price targets of $200,000‑$500,000 for this cycle remain unmet, with Bitcoin trading around $126,000 in October 2025—still less than half of the S2FX projection of $288,000【1†L61-L66】【2†L13-L16】.
The S2F model remains a useful lens for Bitcoin’s supply dynamics, yet its track record as a price predictor is mixed. As the next halving approaches, the key question is whether scarcity alone will drive Bitcoin toward the higher valuation tiers or if demand‑side shocks will continue to dominate price movements.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 2 outlets · Jul 30, 2026 · How we report
Stock To Flow is not a single term, but rather a comparison between two distinct types of variables: a stock, which is a quantity existing at a specific moment, and a flow, which is a rate of change measured over a period of time. These variables are measured in different units and cannot be added together, though their ratio can be used to calculate metrics like turnover or time-based projections.
Stock To Flow concepts function as the basic building blocks of system dynamics models, where a stock acts as a level variable that accumulates over time based on inflows and outflows. Flows act as rates that change the value of the stock, and the relationship between them is often represented through calculus where the stock is the integral of the flow.
The distinction between Stock To Flow is critical because confusing the two can lead to analytical errors in economic theory, a problem historically criticized by economists like Michał Kalecki. Properly identifying these variables allows for the meaningful calculation of ratios, such as the velocity of money or the time required to pay off debt.