Bitcoin halving cycle deepens as PlanB model forecasts long‑term

Bitcoin is now more than halfway through its current halving cycle, with the next block‑reward cut slated for April 2028 [1]. At the same time, the analyst known as PlanB continues to cite his stock‑to‑flow model as a framework that could point to dramatically higher prices in the years ahead [3].

Key takeaways

• The network is just over the halfway point of epoch 5, with about 105,000 blocks remaining until the next halving [1].
• Miner rewards will fall from 3.125 BTC to roughly 1.562 BTC per block after the 2028 event, cutting daily issuance in half [1].
• Bitcoin’s price has risen ~15 % since the April 2024 halving, moving from ~$64,000 to around $74,000, but recent cycles show slower gains than earlier ones [1].
• PlanB’s stock‑to‑flow model, updated to the S2FX version, projects price milestones up to $288,000 before the market cap could reach $100 trillion [3].
• The specific claim of a $500,000 target is not detailed in the provided sources, leaving its basis unclear [—].

Halving progress and market dynamics

The Bitcoin protocol reduces new supply every 210,000 blocks, a process known as halving. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, initiating epoch 5. According to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data, the network has passed the midpoint of this epoch, with roughly 105,000 blocks left before the next scheduled halving in mid‑April 2028 [1]. When the reward drops from 3.125 BTC to about 1.562 BTC per block, daily new issuance will shrink from roughly 450 BTC to near 225 BTC, reinforcing Bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million coins.

Price movements in the current cycle have been more measured. Bitcoin climbed about 15 % after the April 2024 halving, reaching near $74,000, but later fell to around $60,000 in February 2025 after a peak of $126,000 in October 2025 [1]. Analysts attribute the slower price appreciation to Bitcoin’s larger market size, which now requires larger capital inflows to shift prices, and to institutional participation such as spot Bitcoin ETFs [1].

PlanB’s long‑term price outlook

PlanB’s stock‑to‑flow (S2F) model links Bitcoin’s scarcity—defined by its fixed supply and periodic halving—to price expectations. The original S2F model correctly forecast a rise to $55,000 by early 2021, and its later S2FX extension incorporates “transitions” to project future price phases [3]. Within this framework, PlanB has suggested that Bitcoin could reach a valuation of $288,000 between 2020 and 2024, and that the model remains applicable until Bitcoin’s market cap approaches $100 trillion [3]. While some commentators have discussed the possibility of even higher targets, such as $500,000, the sources provided do not contain explicit details or justification for that figure, making the claim’s foundation unclear.

Why it matters

The progression toward the 2028 halving means miners will face tighter margins, prompting many to diversify into high‑performance computing for AI workloads—a trend highlighted by recent industry moves [1]. Simultaneously, the continued discussion of PlanB’s model underscores the ongoing debate over Bitcoin’s long‑term price trajectory and the role of scarcity‑driven metrics in forecasting. As the network approaches the next supply cut, market participants will watch both on‑chain dynamics and model‑based expectations to gauge future price momentum.