Loading article…
Stock-to-Flow model forecasts Bitcoin hitting $100,000 post‑2020 halving, explaining scarcity math and its impact on price expectations.
Bitcoin’s Stock‑to‑Flow (S2F) model projects the cryptocurrency could reach $100,000 following the May 2020 halving, a level that would also mark the top of the current bull cycle according to its creator Plan B [1][2].
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Predicted price | $100,000 |
| Halving date | May 2020 |
| Model basis | Stock (circulating supply) ÷ Flow (newly minted supply) |
| Key claim | Scarcity drives value, similar to gold |
The S2F ratio is calculated by dividing the total existing supply of a commodity by the amount newly produced each year. For Bitcoin, the “stock” is the circulating coins, while the “flow” is the daily block reward that is cut in half roughly every 210,000 blocks (about every four years). This halving reduces the flow, raising the ratio and, under the model’s assumption that scarcity correlates with price, pushes the price higher. Plan B’s original formulation treated Bitcoin like “digital gold,” arguing that a high S2F ratio signals a store‑of‑value asset [2].
Plan B’s 2020 forecast linked the upcoming halving to a price surge, estimating Bitcoin would average around $100,000 by June 2021. The model suggests that the 50 % cut in new Bitcoin issuance will sharply increase the S2F ratio, and historically the ratio has moved in tandem with price on a logarithmic scale. The chart referenced in the Ainslie Bullion article shows price overlaying the S2F line, with the model having “held” in prior cycles [2].
While the S2F model has tracked Bitcoin’s price historically, the author of the DeFi Times newsletter cautions that past accuracy does not guarantee future performance. The model’s $100,000 target is a projection, not a precise prediction, and Bitcoin has previously exceeded S2F price targets during bull markets. Moreover, the model assumes that scarcity remains the dominant driver, ignoring potential macro‑economic or regulatory shocks [1].
The S2F ratio remains a prominent framework for assessing Bitcoin’s scarcity‑driven price potential, but its predictive power hinges on whether future market dynamics continue to align with the scarcity‑value hypothesis.
Coverage is mostly measured — 83 of 94 reports stay neutral.
Every Monday — the token unlocks, Fed dates & catalysts set to move crypto and markets this week. So you’re never blindsided.
Free · 3-min read · one-click unsubscribe
AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 2 outlets · Jul 10, 2026 · How we report
A stock is a quantity measured at a single point in time, while a flow is measured over a period, such as dollars per year.
No, because they have different units; however, ratios of stocks to flows or vice versa are meaningful.
Analysts may refer to a company's existing assets as its stock and its earnings or cash generation as its flow to evaluate performance.