TeraWulf stock up 95% YTD on Anthropic AI lease deal

TeraWulf (NASDAQ:WULF) surged 4% in afternoon trade to $22.10, putting the stock up 95% year‑to‑date and marking its strongest rally since the 2022 IPO [2].

Anthropic lease fuels the AI‑infrastructure narrative

The headline driver is a 20‑year lease with Anthropic, the AI lab behind Claude, which promises about $19 billion of contracted revenue from a purpose‑built AI campus in Hawesville, Kentucky. The site will host roughly 401 MW of critical IT load, with initial capacity expected in the second half of 2027 and full build‑out by early 2028 [2]. TeraWulf says the lease is backed by an investment‑grade credit rating, a rarity among miners‑turned‑AI operators. In the most recent quarter, high‑performance‑computing (HPC) lease revenue already reached $21.02 million—over 60% of total revenue—while bitcoin mining revenue fell to $12.99 million [2].

Parallel monetisation and peer contrast

At the same time, TeraWulf agreed to sell its 50.1% stake in the Abernathy Texas joint venture to a Fluidstack‑led investor group, monetising a roughly $450 million investment at a premium [2]. The combined moves reframe the company from a pure Bitcoin proxy to a long‑duration compute‑infrastructure landlord. By contrast, peers such as Cipher Mining (+44% YTD) and Applied Digital (+37% YTD) are also adding AI leases, but TeraWulf’s $19 bn contract and the credit‑rating backing give it a larger revenue runway [2].

Valuation and risk backdrop

Analysts currently price the stock with a consensus target of $36, well above the $22.10 level, and have issued five strong‑buy and eight buy ratings with no holds or sells [2]. The upside hinges on construction milestones at the Kentucky campus and the finalisation of the Abernathy sale. Risks include construction delays, permitting hurdles, and the stock’s high beta of 4, which can amplify sentiment‑driven swings [2].

What to watch

• Construction progress – milestones at the Hawesville AI campus through H2 2026.
• Abernathy stake sale – closing terms and timing of the $450 million transaction.
• Credit rating updates – any rating action linked to the Anthropic lease.

The market is now pricing TeraWulf as an AI‑infrastructure landlord rather than a Bitcoin miner, but the ultimate test will be whether the long‑term lease translates into on‑time capacity and cash flow before the end of 2028.