XRP Price Outlook Amid Senate CLARITY Act Markup

XRP is currently trading near $1.47 following a 6% rally that occurred as the Senate Banking Committee scheduled a markup for the CLARITY Act for May 14, 2026 [2]. Market participants remain divided on whether the token can sustain a breakout above $1.50 or if it will face a correction toward $1.30 [2].

Key takeaways

• The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to hold a markup for the CLARITY Act on May 14, 2026 [2].
• Approximately 60% of the circulating XRP supply is held near the $1.44 to $1.45 cost basis, creating significant selling pressure [2].
• AI models, including ChatGPT and Claude, suggest a retest of the $1.30 support level may be likely before a sustained move above $1.50 [2].
• If the CLARITY Act passes, Standard Chartered projects between $4 billion and $8 billion in cumulative XRP ETF inflows by the end of 2026 [2].

Market resistance and AI projections

XRP has spent much of 2026 trapped in a range between $1.30 and $1.50 [2]. While the token briefly touched $1.50 during a recent rally, it encountered immediate selling pressure [2]. Analysts note that roughly 36.8 billion XRP—representing about 60% of the total circulating supply—is held at a cost basis between $1.44 and $1.45 [2]. This concentration of holdings acts as a resistance wall, as many investors sell their positions to break even when the price approaches that range [2].

AI simulations from ChatGPT and Claude have analyzed this price action, with both models indicating that a move toward $1.30 is a possibility before the token can establish a higher floor [2]. ChatGPT specifically projects a trading range between $1.30 and $1.45 over the next four to six weeks, citing fading momentum from the April rally [2]. Similarly, Claude AI suggests that if the price fails to hold above $1.50, a slide toward the $1.25 to $1.30 area could occur [2].

The impact of the CLARITY Act

The upcoming markup of the CLARITY Act is widely viewed as the most significant short-term catalyst for the asset [2]. The bill aims to classify XRP as a digital commodity under federal law, which supporters argue would provide the regulatory certainty necessary for institutional investors to commit capital [1].

If the committee advances the bill, it could trigger a shift in market dynamics. Standard Chartered estimates that passage of the legislation could lead to $4 billion to $8 billion in cumulative ETF inflows by the end of the year [2]. Such inflows would likely tighten the circulating supply, potentially providing the momentum needed to push the price toward $1.65 or $1.80 [1, 2]. Conversely, if the markup fails or the bill is shelved, analysts warn that XRP could lose its primary driver for the year and return to following broader market trends led by Bitcoin [1].

Why it matters

The regulatory status of XRP remains a central focus for the market, as institutional participation is currently hindered by ongoing uncertainty [1]. The May 14 markup represents a critical juncture; success could unlock significant ETF-driven demand, while failure risks stalling the project's progress until the next Congress [1, 2]. Investors are closely monitoring the committee's decision, as it will likely determine whether XRP breaks out of its months-long trading range or faces further downward pressure toward the $1.20 to $1.30 support levels [1, 2].