XRP price stuck near $1 as CLARITY Act vote approaches

XRP is hovering at $1.10, roughly 70% under its $3.65 July‑2025 high, while institutional inflows into its ETFs have collapsed and a Senate vote on the CLARITY Act – the bill that could cement its commodity status – is set for late July [1][2].

Price pressure and on‑chain activity

Despite Ripple’s recent European licence and Japanese stablecoin approval, XRP has failed to breach $1.20, a level that would end its year‑long decline. Wallet creation hit a low of 2,130 on July 11 – the fewest since November 2024 – and daily active wallets remain near annual lows, indicating waning network usage even as Ripple signs new deals [1]. Institutional money has gone quiet: ETF inflows fell from $131.94 million in May to $59 million in June and are “almost nothing” in July, underscoring the lack of fresh buyers despite improving fundamentals [1].

Regulatory backdrop and the CLARITY Act

The SEC’s 2020 lawsuit against Ripple was settled in 2025, and both the SEC and CFTC classified XRP as a commodity in March 2025. The pending CLARITY Act would codify that classification into federal law, removing regulatory uncertainty for institutional investors. The Senate is expected to consider the bill the week of July 20, with a final vote required before the August 7 recess; the bill still needs at least seven Democratic votes to pass [2]. Traders price the legislative odds at 79% for a pre‑recess vote but only 36% that it becomes law this year, reflecting the uncertainty around the ethics provision tied to former President Trump’s crypto holdings [2].

Supply dynamics and valuation hurdles

XRP’s circulating supply sits at about 62.47 billion tokens, and Ripple releases up to 1 billion XRP monthly from escrow, gradually increasing supply toward a projected 70 billion in the next few years. At a $10 price, the market cap would reach roughly $625 billion, surpassing Ethereum’s all‑time high and rivaling Bitcoin’s peak, a valuation far beyond XRP’s historic record of $3.84 set in January 2018 [1]. Even a 9× rally from today’s price would require unprecedented demand, especially given that only ~40% of Ripple’s 300+ network institutions currently settle payments in XRP itself [1].

What to watch

• $1.20 resistance: A sustained break could signal the end of the current downtrend.
• CLARITY Act Senate vote: Watch for a floor vote before the August 7 recess; passage could unlock $4‑$8 billion of additional ETF inflows, according to Standard Chartered estimates.
• Monthly escrow releases: Monitor the cumulative supply approaching 70 billion, which would raise the market‑cap ceiling for any double‑digit price target.

XRP’s price remains anchored near $1 despite Ripple’s expanding ecosystem, and any move toward double‑digit valuations hinges on a confluence of regulatory certainty, institutional inflows, and a shift in how its network participants use the token. The upcoming Senate decision on the CLARITY Act will be the decisive test of whether those conditions can materialize.