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XRP drops to $1.25 amid June sell‑off, with support at $1.04‑$1.11 and $1 billion monthly escrow unlocks fueling debate on valuation.
XRP fell to $1.25 on Tuesday, snapping gains since early February and testing a long‑term trend line that has held since 2017, raising concerns a “bear trap” could form if the price recovers the 50‑month EMA [1].
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Price | $1.25 |
| 24h change | –11% |
| Key support | $1.04‑$1.11 |
| Catalyst | June market sell‑off & monthly escrow unlocks |
The $1.25 level sits just below the 50‑month exponential moving average and the multi‑year “White MACRO Trend Line,” both of which have historically acted as support for XRP since 2017 [1]. Analysts note that if XRP can reclaim these levels, the setup could become one of the cycle’s biggest bear traps [1]. Conversely, chartists see the current price trapped in a symmetrical triangle, suggesting a breakout could trigger a 14% move [3].
Trader Moody Hank highlighted that XRP’s total supply is 100 billion tokens, with roughly 58 billion circulating and about 36 billion locked in escrow [3]. Each month Ripple releases up to 1 billion XRP from escrow, creating a steady source of potential selling pressure even though much of the release is re‑locked [3]. Hank argues the token is “optional infrastructure” and remains expensive near the $1 mark given this supply dynamic [3].
Technical analysis from Live Bitcoin News places the immediate resistance at $1.19, with a higher barrier at $1.25, while the critical support zone lies between $1.04 and $1.11 [2]. A break below this zone could undermine any short‑term recovery, whereas a hold might allow a counter‑trend rally against the broader downtrend [2].
The June sell‑off underscores how XRP’s price remains vulnerable to both technical breakdowns and its built‑in token release schedule, leaving the next few weeks decisive for whether the market traps bulls or forces a broader correction.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 4 outlets · Jul 19, 2026 · How we report
The interview indicates the XRP reserve provided an escape hatch if the company shut down, but does not state it directly funded the defense.
Ripple secured full MiCA licensing in Europe, allowing it to offer payment products in 30 European countries, and may benefit from the U.S. Digital Asset Market Clarity Act if enacted.
Over the past year, XRP’s token price has fallen about 50%, whereas Ripple’s private company valuation has risen more than 50%.
Ripple USD, being a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar, is less volatile and could cannibalize cross‑border transfers that previously relied on XRP.
The lawsuit concluded with a $125.04 million civil penalty and an injunction against Ripple, but the court ruled that XRP was not an unlicensed security when sold to retail investors.