Bitcoin dips below $80K as STRC preferred‑stock cycle looms

Bitcoin slipped to an intraday low of $78,795, pushing the benchmark below $80,000 for the first time this week, as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $630 million of net outflows—the largest daily exit in three months. Analysts see the move as likely temporary, pointing to Strategy’s preferred‑stock mechanism (STR C) that has historically sparked mid‑month buying rallies.

Price pressure and ETF outflows

The dip coincided with a $630.4 million net outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on May 13, according to CoinGecko data, marking the steepest weekly withdrawal since the start of the year. The outflows removed a key source of fresh capital that had helped keep Bitcoin above $80,000 earlier in the month. By contrast, on‑chain data showed large wallets still accumulating, a factor that analysts say could help the price rebound above the 50‑day moving average (MA) quickly [2].

STRC dynamics and the “short‑lived” thesis

Strategy’s Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock (STRC) is designed to trade near its $100 par value, funding Bitcoin purchases through dividend‑driven capital raises. The instrument has driven three consecutive mid‑month rallies, buying 4,467 BTC in January, 22,131 BTC in March and nearly 46,872 BTC in April [2]. However, STRC’s price fell to $83 on Thursday, 17% below the target and its lowest since debuting in July 2025 [3]. The decline reflects a combination of falling Bitcoin prices, reduced cash reserves after a $1.5 billion convertible‑note buyback, and competition from rival dividend products offering higher yields [3].

Analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima (Bitrue Research Institute) argues the current dip will be brief, noting a “classic liquidity sweep” around $78,000–$79,000 and a “solid defense of the monthly 50 MA” that historically precedes a quick climb back above $80,000 [2]. Yet he cautions that the May STRC cycle is already lagging: only about 1 BTC has been purchased through the mechanism so far, suggesting demand for the preferred may be plateauing after earlier strong runs [2].

On‑chain and broader market context

While Bitcoin’s price lags the AI‑driven equity rally, on‑chain flows still show aggressive accumulation by large holders, and stablecoin inflows have exceeded $7 billion since February [2]. CoinEx chief analyst Jeff Ko notes that the “AI rally lifts crypto” thesis is broken, but continued ETF and stablecoin inflows could help Bitcoin exit the bearish zone [2]. The upcoming STRC ex‑dividend date on Friday will test whether the preferred‑stock mechanism can reignite buying pressure.

What to watch

• $80,000 – key resistance; a break could signal the end of the dip.
• STRC ex‑dividend date (Friday) – may trigger a mid‑month rally if dividend‑driven buying resumes.
• ETF net flow data – further outflows could deepen the dip; inflows would support a rebound.

The price dip underscores how tightly Bitcoin’s near‑term trajectory is linked to the health of Strategy’s preferred‑stock engine. If STRC can regain proximity to its $100 par value, the market may see a swift recovery; if the mechanism stalls, prolonged sideways action could test investor conviction.