Bitcoin valuation model forecasts $500K average in 2024‑2028 cycle

Bitcoin’s famed Stock‑to‑Flow (S2F) model now suggests the cryptocurrency could average $500,000 during the 2024‑2028 halving cycle, a figure that would represent more than a seven‑fold rise from its current price near $67,300 [2]. The projection, framed as a cycle‑average rather than a peak, sits at the high end of a broad range that spans $250,000 to $1 million, while other analysts remain more conservative.

Key takeaways

• PlanB’s S2F model predicts a $500,000 cycle‑average for Bitcoin, with a $250k‑$1 million range [2].
• Competing analyst Bobby A forecasts $200,000‑$250,000 by 2026‑2027, citing model limitations [2].
• Recent on‑chain data shows Bitcoin’s supply in profit fell to 55% amid a price dip below $80,000 [3].
• Market headwinds include geopolitical tension and uneven spot‑ETF inflows, adding volatility [2].
• The valuation outlook is contested, and the model’s past performance has drawn criticism [2].

PlanB’s Scarcity‑Driven Forecast

PlanB, the pseudonymous creator of the S2F model, bases his forecast on Bitcoin’s decreasing issuance after each halving, the latest of which occurred in April 2024. By assuming that supply growth slows while demand remains steady or rises, the model yields a projected cycle‑average price of $500,000, with a broader confidence interval of $250,000 to $1 million [2]. The analyst emphasizes that this figure is an average over the entire halving period, not a guaranteed peak. If realized, the average would require Bitcoin to climb more than seven times its current market price before the cycle concludes.

Divergent Views and Current Market Conditions

Other market observers are less bullish. Crypto analyst Bobby A places his price target at $200,000‑$250,000 for 2026‑2027, arguing that S2F serves only as a rough long‑term guide and fails to capture real‑time variables that influence price [2]. He notes that the model underperformed during the 2020‑2024 cycle, prompting some analysts to dismiss it entirely. Meanwhile, on‑chain metrics reveal that the proportion of Bitcoin held at a profit has dropped to 55%, reflecting recent price weakness that pushed the asset below $80,000 [3]. Additional short‑term pressures include geopolitical tensions and inconsistent inflows into newly approved spot‑Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds, which have contributed to heightened volatility and a consolidation phase after a prior rally to $74,000 [2].

Why it matters

The divergent forecasts highlight the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s price trajectory. If PlanB’s scarcity‑driven model proves accurate, the cryptocurrency could experience a dramatic appreciation, reshaping investor expectations and potentially influencing institutional participation. Conversely, the more modest targets and recent on‑chain data suggest that market dynamics remain volatile and that price growth may be constrained by external factors. Investors and traders will likely watch upcoming halving‑related data, ETF inflow trends, and macro‑economic developments to gauge which outlook gains traction.