XRP holds $1.40 support as ETF inflows surge, price eyes $2 target

XRP rebounded 1.2% to $1.40 on Wednesday, holding the 200‑week EMA and a crucial $1.40 support level that underpins both a bullish symmetrical triangle and a bearish pennant pattern, while spot ETF inflows hit their strongest month since December 2025 [1].

ETF inflows and technical backdrop

Spot XRP ETFs recorded $82.42 million of inflows over the past 11 of 13 days, pushing April’s net inflow to $83.9 million—the highest monthly total since December 2025 [1]. Global XRP ETPs added $25 million in the latest week, bringing 2026 AUM to roughly $2.6 billion [1]. This sustained institutional demand coincides with a symmetrical triangle that has risen about 53% from its lower trend line; a close above the upper line at $1.45 would open a path toward a $2.15 target, roughly 53% higher than current levels [1].

Conversely, a bear pennant on the three‑day chart broke below its lower trend line at $1.40, projecting a downside target near $0.65—a 52.5% drop—if the support fails [2]. The weekly Stoch RSI deathcross and a daily RSI decline to 42 reinforce bearish momentum, while the 100‑day EMA at $1.52 and 200‑day EMA at $1.75 remain immediate resistance hurdles [1].

On‑chain and market sentiment signals

Glassnode data show XRP’s MVRV Z‑score hovering near zero, a historic accumulation zone that often precedes market bottoms; the 0.80 MVRV pricing band sits at $1.14, close to the recent 15‑month low of $1.14 [3]. Cost‑basis heatmaps indicate roughly 1.73 billion XRP were acquired around the $1.25‑$1.30 zone, suggesting many holders are near breakeven and may limit sell pressure [3].

Despite the technical divergence, institutional appetite remains evident: nine consecutive days of net ETF inflows total $95.5 million, lifting cumulative inflows toward $1.4 billion and AUM to $1.14 billion [2]. This “heating up” of regulated XRP exposure is noted alongside broader crypto market flows that saw Bitcoin and Ether outflows while XRP products attracted net inflows [2].

What to watch

• $1.45: Break above this level could trigger a rally toward $2.15.
• $1.38‑$1.40: A decisive break below could open a slide toward $0.65, with $1.12‑$1.00 as intermediate targets.
• Upcoming ETF inflow data (weekly) and any regulatory updates to the CLARITY Act that may affect XRP’s institutional accessibility.

XRP’s price now hinges on whether bulls can defend the $1.40 support and push past short‑term EMA resistance, or if the bearish pennant’s breakdown accelerates a deeper correction. The outcome will shape the token’s trajectory toward either a $2‑plus rally or a sub‑$1 decline.