XRP price near $1.10, outlook to 2029 hinges on supply drip and ETF

XRP sits at roughly $1.10, about 70% below its July 2025 high of $3.65, and the next three years will depend on whether demand can absorb the steady monthly escrow releases and growing ETF inflows.

Supply dynamics and demand pressure

Ripple unlocks about 1 billion XRP each month from its escrow, re‑locking most and leaving a few hundred million on the market. With roughly 38 billion XRP still in escrow, this drip will continue for years, expanding the circulating supply toward an estimated 72 billion by 2029 [1]. Holders worry that a larger supply could weigh on price unless buying keeps pace.

Spot XRP ETFs, launched in late 2025, have attracted about $1.45 billion so far, and inflows have persisted even as Bitcoin‑ and Ethereum‑focused funds saw outflows [1]. At the same time, XRP held on exchanges has fallen to its lowest level in seven years, suggesting that many owners are moving coins to long‑term storage rather than preparing to sell [1]. This combination of strong ETF demand and shrinking exchange balances provides a floor that could offset the monthly supply increase.

Ripple’s business versus token price

Ripple’s payments network moved more than $95 billion in total volume and now spans over 70 currency corridors, yet only about 40% of institutions on the network actually settle payments with XRP [1]. The rest rely on Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin, which now holds roughly $1.7 billion [1]. Consequently, Ripple’s operational growth has not translated into proportional token price gains.

Analysts argue that a legal clarification—such as the passage of the CLARITY Act, which would lock XRP’s status as a commodity—could unlock larger institutional inflows into XRP ETFs, potentially raising annual inflows to $3‑$5 billion [1]. Until such regulatory certainty arrives, the token’s price remains more sensitive to broader crypto market moves than to Ripple’s own performance.

Macro backdrop and the 2028 Bitcoin halving

Crypto’s correlation with the S&P 500 recently hit a record 0.96, meaning Bitcoin and, by extension, XRP often move in lockstep with equity markets [1]. Recent declines in XRP have mirrored Bitcoin’s drops, which were driven by Federal Reserve expectations of higher rates [1].

The next Bitcoin halving is expected around April 2028, falling within the three‑year horizon. Historically, XRP has peaked 12‑18 months after a Bitcoin halving, though the magnitude of gains has been shrinking each cycle [1]. A modest post‑halving rally could lift XRP into the low‑single‑digit range, but a weaker macro environment could blunt that effect.

What to watch

• Monthly escrow releases – monitor the net amount of XRP entering the market each month; a larger-than‑expected release could increase supply pressure.
• ETF inflow milestones – $3 bn in spot XRP ETF assets would signal stronger institutional demand; track quarterly inflow reports.
• Regulatory outcomes – the passage (or delay) of the CLARITY Act in Congress could materially affect XRP’s classification and investor appetite.

XRP’s trajectory to 2029 will be shaped by the balance between its predictable supply drip and the ability of ETFs and potential regulatory clarity to generate enough demand to lift the token above its current $1.10 level. The open question remains whether institutional players will embrace XRP enough to offset the expanding supply and broader market headwinds.