Bitcoin holds near $63,000 as FOMC minutes reveal hawkish split

Bitcoin hovered at roughly $63,000 on July 8‑9, 2026, after the Federal Reserve’s June 17 meeting minutes confirmed a hawkish split with nine of eighteen officials projecting at least one more rate hike before year‑end【2】. The price action matters because Bitcoin’s sensitivity to Fed policy has risen sharply since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, linking the crypto’s moves to macro‑rate dynamics.

Fed stance and Bitcoin’s reaction

The minutes revealed a divided committee that, while unanimously holding the policy range at 3.50%–3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, removed forward guidance and signaled “will deliver price stability”【2】. Nine officials now expect at least one more hike in 2026, upending earlier expectations of a more dovish path. Conventional theory holds that higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding a non‑yielding asset like Bitcoin, prompting institutional investors—who now access the crypto via ETFs—to shift toward Treasuries【2】. Yet the market’s recent 8.4% bounce from a June low of $57,750 to near $63,000 shows that softer data can still lift Bitcoin, as seen after a weak NFP print earlier in July【2】.

On‑chain and sentiment backdrop

Bitcoin’s 52‑week correlation with the U.S. dollar index has been about –0.85 through H1 2026, indicating a strong inverse relationship driven by Fed policy【2】. Despite the price recovery, open interest is declining, suggesting the rally may be short‑covering rather than driven by fresh buying【2】. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sat at 23 (Extreme Fear) on July 8, reflecting deep market anxiety even as the price climbs【2】. Long‑term holders remain active, with a strategy buying 520 BTC at $67,068 in June despite the sell‑off【2】.

What to watch

• June CPI (July 14) – A softer print could reinforce expectations of a prolonged rate hold or cut, supporting Bitcoin’s rally; a hotter print may revive hike bets and pressure price.
• July 28‑29 FOMC meeting – Any shift in the hawkish stance or forward guidance could trigger a fresh move in Bitcoin.
• Key price thresholds – $64,500 (recent two‑week high) as resistance; $57,750 (late‑June low) as support.

The FOMC minutes underscore that Bitcoin’s near‑term trajectory will hinge on whether inflation data eases enough to temper the Fed’s hawkish outlook, or whether the projected 2026 hike materialises, pulling capital away from risk assets.