Bitcoin tests $62k 200‑week line as ETF outflows and rising wedge

Bitcoin slipped to $62,500 on June 9, brushing the 200‑week simple moving average near $61,840 and prompting traders to watch whether the long‑term support holds [1]. The price dip follows a sharp sell‑off that pushed Bitcoin below $64,000 earlier in the week, driven by record outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds and the largest wave of leveraged liquidations in months [1].

Coinglass data show spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed more than $3 billion in net capital over the past ten days, marking the longest streak of withdrawals since the products launched and stripping a key source of institutional demand [1]. At the same time, over $822 million of long positions were liquidated in the preceding 24 hours, a self‑reinforcing loop that amplified price pressure as margin calls forced traders out of leveraged bets [1]. The combined effect left Bitcoin vulnerable at the 200‑week trendline, a level that historically has acted as a decisive support during previous bear markets.

Technical analysts are also flagging a bearish rising wedge forming on the daily chart, with the apex near $84,000 and the lower trend line pointing to a measured downside target around $70,000 [2]. A break below the wedge’s apex could trigger the pattern’s expected collapse, while a hold above it would invalidate the setup and open upside potential toward $90,000–$95,000. The wedge’s lower boundary aligns closely with the 200‑day exponential moving average, adding another layer of resistance if Bitcoin fails to rebound.

The backdrop to these chart patterns is a mixed inflation outlook. The Cleveland Federal Reserve nowcasts April headline CPI at 3.56% year‑over‑year, a slight uptick from March’s 3.3%, while monthly CPI is projected to rise 0.45% [2]. Higher headline inflation could keep the Federal Reserve from cutting rates quickly, a scenario that typically pressures speculative assets like Bitcoin. Moreover, the major institutional buyer “Strategy” has paused its Bitcoin purchases, and its preferred stock trades below par, limiting fresh capital inflows that previously helped cushion price swings [2].

If Bitcoin can sustain above the 200‑week line, the market may view the level as a floor and look for a short‑term bounce, especially as the Nasdaq’s recent pullback eases broader risk sentiment [3]. Conversely, a decisive break below the trendline would likely accelerate liquidations, push the price toward the $60,000 zone, and set the stage for a deeper test of the $70,000 wedge target. The next CPI release on May 12 will be a key catalyst for whether risk appetite revives or further retreats.