XRP Price Analysis: Support Levels and August Outlook

XRP enters August trading at $1.06, pinned to a critical $1 support level that represents the only floor bulls have successfully defended throughout a year that has seen the token shed 43% of its value [1]. With momentum readings at their lowest point since the 2022 market bottom, the token faces a quiet month on the regulatory and macro calendar that leaves its primary support vulnerable to broader market volatility [1].

Market positioning and ETF flows

The current price action reflects a significant cooling in institutional demand, as spot XRP ETFs recorded zero flows on 11 of the 22 trading days in July [1]. Total inflows for the month reached $27.29 million, a sharp decline compared to the $666 million gathered during the funds' inaugural month in November 2025 [1]. While total inflows since launch remain at $1.48 billion, the net asset value of these funds has fluctuated as the falling token price eroded holdings [2].

Supply dynamics suggest that much of the selling pressure may be exhausted, as the number of XRP tokens held on exchanges has dropped to 1.6 billion—roughly half of the 3.76 billion parked there in October 2025 [1]. With approximately 60% of the circulating supply currently held at a loss, historical patterns indicate that many remaining holders have reached a point of long-term commitment rather than active selling [1].

Macro catalysts and technical outlook

August presents a thin calendar for XRP-specific developments, as the Senate has deferred the CLARITY Act until the fall, and Ripple’s monthly 1 billion token escrow release has historically failed to trigger significant price movement [1]. Market attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming inflation report on August 12 and the Jackson Hole symposium scheduled for August 27–29 [1].

The token has traded in lockstep with Bitcoin throughout the year, and analysts suggest that maintaining the $1 support level is contingent on Bitcoin holding its floor above $58,000 [1]. Should the $1 support fail, the next technical levels to the downside are identified in the $0.85 to $0.90 range [1]. Conversely, a dovish shift in macroeconomic policy could provide the momentum needed to test the $1.18 to $1.20 resistance zone that has capped the price since June [1].

What to watch

• August 12 Inflation Report: A hot reading could delay interest rate cut expectations, potentially pressuring XRP below its $1 support level [1].
• Jackson Hole Symposium (August 27–29): Investors are monitoring for any signals regarding financial innovation policy that could impact the regulatory environment for digital assets [1].
• $1.00 Support Level: This remains the primary floor; a breach in a low-volume environment could signal a further decline toward $0.85 [1].

Whether XRP can decouple from its recent stagnation depends on whether the macro environment shifts to favor risk-on assets before the Senate returns to legislative business in September [1]. The open question remains whether the current exhaustion of sellers is sufficient to sustain the price floor in the absence of new institutional buying [1].