Bitcoin passes midpoint of 2024‑2028 halving cycle, supply tightens

Bitcoin’s block reward fell to 3.125 BTC per block in the 2024 halving and the network has now crossed the midpoint of this cycle, leaving roughly 105,000 blocks until the next cut in 2028 [2]. At present miners earn about 450 BTC a day; that issuance will halve to roughly 225 BTC after the upcoming reduction [2]. The shrinking supply is built into Bitcoin’s protocol, which halves the reward every 210,000 blocks to enforce a hard‑capped 21 million coin limit [2].

The slower price rise since the 2024 halving—about 15 %—reflects a larger market and more institutional participation, according to analysts [2]. Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in October 2025, fell to around $60,000 by February 2026, and recently jumped from $70,700 to above $76,000 in two days, a move partly driven by liquidations of short positions in derivatives markets [2]. The reduced issuance is expected to squeeze miners’ profit margins, prompting firms like TeraWulf and Core Scientific to repurpose mining hardware for AI workloads, securing multi‑billion‑dollar AI‑computing contracts [4].

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved under the Trump administration that began in January 2025, have opened a major institutional channel, but the larger market size now requires bigger capital inflows to move prices, which some analysts say dampens volatility [2]. Meanwhile, proponents such as economist Saifedean Ammous argue that Bitcoin’s predictable scarcity offers a hedge against inflationary fiat systems, a view echoed by commentators who compare its long‑term stability to gold [3][5][7].

As the network approaches the 2028 halving, the key question is how miners will adapt to tighter margins and whether the growing institutional flow through ETFs and AI‑related revenue streams will sustain Bitcoin’s price momentum in a cycle where new supply is increasingly scarce.