Bitcoin passes halfway point in halving cycle as price climbs to

A $5,000 Bitcoin stake bought after the April 2024 halving is now worth about $5,789, putting the investment just above its original cost as the price sits near $77,000 [1]. That level marks the halfway point of the four‑year cycle that began with the 2024 reward cut, and it follows a pattern of post‑halving rallies that have historically driven the biggest gains in Bitcoin’s history.

Each halving halves the block reward and, historically, triggers a price surge within 12‑18 months. The first halving in November 2012 saw Bitcoin rise from $12.39 to $754 in a year, turning a $5,000 outlay into $304,279 [1]. The second halving in July 2016 produced a 22‑fold increase, lifting the same $5,000 to roughly $110,547 by the end of 2017 [1]. The 2020 halving generated a peak of $69,000 in November 2021, inflating the stake to $38,336 before a sharp correction to $16,500 in 2022 [1]. The most recent 2024 halving pushed the price to an all‑time high of $126,000 in 2025, briefly swelling the $5,000 investment to $9,474, before a five‑month decline left it at $5,789 today [1].

The price trajectory aligns with the four‑year “Bitcoin cycle” described by analysts: a buildup phase before the halving, an expansion phase as supply contracts, a euphoric rally, and finally a correction [2]. While the halving sets the rhythm, broader liquidity conditions—global monetary policy, investor sentiment, and macro‑level capital flows—determine the amplitude of each rally [2]. The current mid‑cycle price of $77,000 suggests the expansion phase is still unfolding, but the recent downturn highlights how shifts in liquidity can truncate gains.

If the historical pattern holds, the next rally could peak in 2029 or 2030, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward $150,000 and doubling the current portfolio value to about $61.8 million from the $31.7 million total across all four cycles [1]. The real question now is whether global liquidity will stay supportive enough to fuel that next surge, or if another correction will erode the gains before the 2028 halving even arrives.