Bitcoin price after 2028 halving – Grok forecasts $400K‑$800K range

Peter Brandt, the veteran trader who called the 2018 bear market bottom, posted on April 23 2026 that Bitcoin could peak between $300,000 and $500,000 in September‑October 2029 if the four‑year halving cycle repeats [1]. His framework assumes a deep correction this year, a bottom around September‑October 2026 that may dip below the February 2026 low of $60,000‑$63,000, and then a rally that peaks roughly 18 months after the next halving in April 2028 [1].

Brandt’s forecast hinges on three conditions: a true “investable low” in late 2026, the supply shock from the 2028 halving that will cut daily new Bitcoin from 450 to 225 coins, and continued expansion of global liquidity that pushes capital into risk assets. He points to spot Bitcoin ETFs already holding 1.32 million BTC—more than eight years of current mining output—and BlackRock’s IBIT alone holding over 812,000 BTC, roughly $64 billion worth, as evidence that institutional demand could amplify the supply squeeze [1].

Meanwhile, three leading AI models—ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok—were asked to project Bitcoin’s price by 2035. All three converged on a middle‑range forecast of $400,000‑$800,000, treating the $1 million level as a bullish outlier rather than the baseline. Grok’s analysis emphasizes the numbers: turning today’s $73,000 price into $1 million would require a 13‑fold increase, or about 33 % annual compound growth over nine years, a rate that has slowed compared with Bitcoin’s early‑adoption era [2]. Grok assigns a 40‑50 % probability to the $400,000‑$800,000 band and a 40‑50 % chance to a bullish $1 million scenario, noting that capture of just 5‑10 % of global investable assets could make $1 million plausible [2].

Both Brandt’s and Grok’s outlooks share a common thread: institutional capital is the primary driver. Gemini’s model ranks institutional allocation ahead of retail adoption, while Brandt’s scenario relies on ETF inflows that have already added $2.44 billion in April 2026 alone [1]. The divergence lies in timing—Brandt expects a peak by late 2029, whereas the AI models look further ahead to 2035, reflecting uncertainty about macro conditions such as U.S. interest rates, which are currently held at 3.5‑3.75 % with only one possible cut priced in for 2026 [1].

If Bitcoin can sustain levels above $80,000 through the summer, the classic halving‑cycle pattern may hold, lending credibility to Brandt’s 2029 target. Conversely, a failure to form a clear bottom in 2026 could flatten the supply‑demand dynamics that underpin both the trader’s and the AI models’ bullish cases. The real question now is whether institutional demand will keep growing fast enough to convert the supply shock of the 2028 halving into the multi‑trillion‑dollar market caps projected by both forecasts.