XRP at $1.08 stalls despite Ripple wins, why price stays flat

XRP hovered near $1.08 on July 2, barely moving despite Ripple’s recent wins on the Open USD stablecoin partnership and a pending CLARITY Act vote that could cement its legal status. The price stagnation matters because investors are watching whether macro pressure or upcoming regulatory decisions will finally move the token off its year‑long downtrend.

Ripple wins don’t translate to price gains

In June, Ripple joined the Open USD stablecoin consortium and was named a settlement partner for Mastercard’s AI‑payments network—news that would have lifted XRP a year ago—but the token slipped from $1.30 at the start of the month to $1.04 by month‑end, its weakest level since late 2024 [2]. The disconnect stems from macro risk: a broad crypto sell‑off kept Bitcoin under $59,000, and XRP’s high beta caused it to fall harder than most assets, with the Fear & Greed Index stuck at “extreme fear” [2]. Standard Chartered’s 2026 target for XRP fell from $8 to $2.80 in February, reflecting the need for better macro conditions, yet the target remains roughly 160% above the current price [1].

On‑chain health and ETF flows contrast the price action

Despite the price drop, on‑chain metrics show growing usage: daily active addresses jumped 72% in two weeks, from ~23 k to ~39.5 k, indicating real network activity beyond speculation [2]. Meanwhile, open interest collapsed from $1.3 bn to under $150 m, stripping leveraged pressure that amplified the decline. Spot XRP ETFs have attracted $1.48 bn since launch, but a net outflow appeared on June 30 as the quarter closed, and fund assets fell to about $944 m after price erosion [1]. These mixed signals suggest that while institutional demand remains, the inflow pace is weakening.

Regulatory outlook and token supply dynamics

The CLARITY Act, which would classify XRP as a commodity, is slated for a New York hearing this month, with a Senate vote expected in late July or August. Market pricing of the bill’s passage has slipped to roughly 42% from over 70% after a May committee clearance [1]. Ripple also holds tens of billions of XRP in escrow, releasing up to 1 bn each month, a schedule that continues regardless of market readiness [1]. If the act stalls or fails, XRP could linger near the $1 support zone, where further downside to $0.80 is possible.

What to watch

• $1.00‑$1.03 support – breach could trigger a slide toward $0.80.
• CLARITY Act Senate vote – expected late July/August; market odds now ~42%.
• Spot ETF net flows – any sustained outflows after June 30 would signal waning institutional demand.

XRP’s price remains trapped between strong network fundamentals and a hostile macro environment, leaving the token’s next move dependent on regulatory clarity and whether institutional inflows can outpace broader market fear.