Ripple XRP price near $1.10 as supply drip and ETF inflows shape 2029

XRP is trading near $1.10, roughly 70% below its July 2025 peak of $3.65, while a steady monthly release of escrowed tokens and growing spot ETF assets set the stage for its price trajectory to 2029【1】.

Supply drip versus demand pressure

Each month Ripple unlocks about 1 billion XRP from escrow, re‑locking most and leaving a few hundred million on the open market. With roughly 38 billion XRP still in escrow, this drip will continue for years【1】. The token’s price floor therefore depends on whether demand can absorb this incremental supply. Recent on‑chain data shows exchange holdings at a seven‑year low, suggesting holders are moving coins to long‑term storage rather than selling, which could temper price erosion【1】.

Institutional catalysts and market context

Spot XRP ETFs, launched in late 2025, have attracted roughly $1.45 bn of inflows, outpacing Bitcoin and Ethereum funds that have been net‑outflows this year【1】. If the pending CLARITY Act passes, analysts project ETF inflows could rise to $3‑5 bn, a several‑fold increase over current levels【1】. Ripple’s broader business, however, has not yet translated into higher XRP prices: despite $95 bn of payment volume and $3.5 bn of tokenized assets on the XRP Ledger, the token remains flat, with only about 40% of RippleNet’s 300 banking partners using On‑Demand Liquidity (ODL) that actually moves XRP【2】. The remaining 60% rely on messaging rails that bypass the token, limiting direct demand.

Macro forces and the 2028 Bitcoin halving

XRP’s price is increasingly correlated with broader crypto sentiment and the U.S. equity market; the Bitcoin–S&P 500 correlation hit a record 0.96 earlier this year, meaning XRP often moves in lockstep with Bitcoin’s swings【1】. The next Bitcoin halving, expected around April 2028, historically precedes XRP peaks 12‑18 months later, offering a potential upside window that could lift XRP into the low‑single‑digit range if other catalysts align【1】.

What to watch

• Monthly escrow releases – 1 billion XRP per month; monitor the net supply increase versus on‑chain demand.
• CLARITY Act progress – legislative outcome could unlock $3‑5 bn of ETF inflows and legitimize XRP as a commodity.
• ETF inflow trends – spot ETF net assets, currently ~$1.45 bn, will indicate institutional appetite.

The interplay of a predictable supply drip, pending regulatory clarity, and macro‑linked demand will determine whether XRP can climb back toward its $3.65 high or remain confined to the $0.80‑$1.50 corridor over the next three years.