XRP drops 19% to $1.08, eyes rebound on CLARITY Act and ETF inflows

XRP slid 19% on Friday, hitting $1.08—the lowest level in more than a year—and settled in a narrow $1.12‑$1.16 band over the weekend, setting the stage for a test of short‑term support and upcoming regulatory milestones【2】.

What drove the slide

The price decline coincided with broader market weakness and a sharp pullback in crypto assets, but on‑chain data showed the token’s RSI plunged to 18.61, an oversold reading that historically precedes short‑term rebounds【2】. Institutional interest remained evident: spot XRP ETFs attracted a record $131.94 million in May, outpacing inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs during the same period【2】.

Institutional backdrop and regulatory outlook

Ripple’s ecosystem has been bolstered by several high‑profile partnerships—JPMorgan’s Kinexys platform, Mastercard, and others completed a cross‑border Treasury settlement on the XRP Ledger in early May, clearing in under five seconds【1】. Yet the token’s price has stayed flat, creating a disconnect between ledger usage and token demand. The Senate Banking Committee’s 15‑9 approval of the CLARITY Act on May 14 would codify XRP’s commodity status into law, offering a more permanent regulatory foundation than the March 17 SEC‑CFTC ruling【1】. Polymarket assigns a roughly 63% probability that the act will pass in 2026, and Standard Chartered projects $4‑$8 billion of additional ETF inflows if it does【1】.

Price outlook scenarios

ChatGPT’s short‑term forecast, based on the oversold momentum and recent ETF buying, places XRP between $1.55 and $1.80 within 30 days, provided the token holds above the $1.15 weekly support level【2】. For the year‑end target of $2.50‑$3.00, the model requires the CLARITY Act to reach the Senate floor before August and Bitcoin to stabilize above $80,000【2】. A more aggressive $6‑plus scenario hinges on cumulative XRP ETF inflows reaching $5‑$10 billion and Bitcoin climbing past $90,000, a situation the AI assigns only about a 10% probability【2】.

What to watch

• $1.15 weekly support – a break below could invalidate the near‑term bounce forecast.
• Senate CLARITY Act vote – a full‑senate decision (60‑vote threshold) will be a decisive regulatory catalyst.
• ETF inflow milestones – cumulative XRP ETF inflows approaching $1 billion and then $5 billion will test the liquidity‑driven price scenarios.

XRP’s price is perched at a technical low with strong institutional backing and a pending regulatory vote, making the next few weeks critical for determining whether the token can translate ledger activity into broader market demand. The outcome will hinge on whether the CLARITY Act clears the Senate and whether ETF capital continues to flow into the asset.