Ethereum Price Analysis: Whale Accumulation and Market Trends

Ethereum whales added more than $2 billion in ETH during May, even as the asset’s price fell roughly 12% from its early-month highs [1]. While smaller investors sold into the downturn, non-exchange whale wallets increased their holdings from 124.15 million ETH to 125.17 million ETH between May 1 and May 29 [1].

This accumulation trend is echoed by broader data showing that wallets holding at least 100,000 ETH now control 22.03% of the total supply, a ten-week high [1]. Separate data from CryptoQuant indicates that accumulation addresses—wallets that receive ETH without making outgoing transactions—saw a single-day inflow of 246,620 ETH on Tuesday, valued at approximately $592 million [3]. These long-term holders have pushed their total balance to a record 25 million ETH, a 20.36% increase so far in 2026 [3].

The current market environment differs significantly from February 2026, when long-term holders sold heavily and the price dropped 19% in four weeks [1]. Glassnode’s Hodler Net Position Change, which tracks the behavior of investors holding for five months or more, has remained in accumulation territory since late February, suggesting that the long-term base is not currently liquidating [1].

Technical Outlook and Resistance Levels

Ethereum’s price action is currently navigating a conflict between momentum indicators and historical cost basis data. A "hidden bullish divergence" has formed on the charts since late March, where the price prints higher lows while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints lower lows, a pattern often associated with exhaustion among sellers [1]. Analysts are watching the $1,964 level closely; a two-day close above this mark is viewed as a requirement to sustain a potential relief bounce [1].

Other technical indicators point toward more ambitious targets. Some analysts identify a "bull flag" pattern on the daily chart, which could project a move toward $3,000 if the price sustains a breakout above $2,350 [2]. However, a significant potential sell wall exists between $2,750 and $2,850, where investors hold approximately 7.1 million ETH at their average cost basis [2]. Because many of these holders are currently at or near their breakeven point, this zone could create substantial resistance that stalls upward momentum [2].

Whether Ethereum can sustain a recovery depends on the price holding above its realized cost basis of $2,320 and the continued absence of large-scale outflows from whale wallets [1, 2]. If the current accumulation by large holders holds steady, the market may find the support needed to test higher resistance, but a failure to maintain these technical levels could invalidate the current bullish signals.