Bitcoin Puell Multiple climbs above 1 signaling bullish miner activity

Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple rose above the critical 1.0 level, a pattern that historically precedes major price rallies after a halving [1]. The move suggests miner revenue is recovering, giving the network a fresh source of upside momentum.

Miner revenue rebounding

The Puell Multiple compares daily miner USD revenue to its yearly average. After the last halving, miner revenue typically fell sharply, but the metric now sits above 1.0, echoing past cycles where a crossing of this line was followed by strong price gains [1]. This suggests that miners are once again covering costs and may be adding to the market, a positive supply‑side signal.

Supporting on‑chain fundamentals

Other metrics reinforce the bullish backdrop. The two‑year rolling MVRV Z‑Score remains far beneath its historic highs, implying Bitcoin’s market value is still low relative to the realized (average acquisition) price and leaving room for appreciation [1]. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index sits in the “Greedy” band (80‑90), a level that historically persisted for months during the 2020‑21 bull run [1]. A modest decline in active address sentiment hints that retail participants have not fully re‑entered, potentially providing fresh demand if sentiment improves [1].

Tools to track the signals

On‑chain analysis relies on platforms that aggregate blockchain data. For miner‑focused metrics like the Puell Multiple, Glassnode and CryptoQuant are the primary sources [2]. Broader indicators—active addresses, exchange flows, MVRV, and the Fear & Greed Index—are also available on these services, as well as on Dune Analytics and DeFiLlama for custom queries [2].

What to watch

• Puell Multiple: A sustained stay above 1.0 or a rise toward 1.5 could reinforce the bullish narrative.
• MVRV Z‑Score: Any movement toward historic peak zones (above 2) would suggest overvaluation risk.
• Exchange flows: Large BTC deposits to major exchanges may signal upcoming selling pressure; withdrawals would indicate accumulation.

The crossing of the 1.0 Puell Multiple revives a pattern that has preceded past Bitcoin rallies, but the ultimate direction will depend on whether miner revenue, market sentiment, and on‑chain activity continue to align.