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Polymarket’s World Cup market has surpassed $1 billion in volume; new users can claim a $50 bonus with promo code SBWIRE or WTOP. Learn the odds and how to
Polymarket’s outright winner market for the 2026 FIFA World Cup has already generated over $1 billion in trading volume, while the platform is offering new users a $50 bonus for a $20 deposit — a lure that could boost participation ahead of the tournament’s opening matches【2】.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Trading volume | > $1 billion (outright winner market) |
| Bonus offer | $50 for a $20 deposit (promo codes SBWIRE, WTOP) |
| Top odds | France 18%, Spain 17% |
| Market depth | 48 states + DC eligible (Minnesota, Nevada excluded) |
The surge to a $1 billion volume milestone reflects intense trader activity as the World Cup progresses. France leads the market at 18% probability, edging past Spain’s 17% share, while England and Brazil sit at 11% and 9% respectively. These percentages are anchored to live Polymarket data and shift with news such as injuries and squad announcements【2】. The market’s breadth includes long‑shot contenders—Germany at 5% and Norway at 3%—indicating that participants are pricing both favorites and potential upsets.
Polymarket is running two parallel welcome offers. The WTOP code, promoted in Washington media, grants a $50 bonus after a $20 deposit for new users in eligible states【1】. A separate SBWIRE code, detailed by For The Win, provides the same $50 bonus but excludes Minnesota and Nevada, covering 48 states plus the District of Columbia【2】. Both offers require users to be at least 18 years old and to complete identity verification before trading.
The sources do not disclose Polymarket’s token supply, on‑chain flows, or holder metrics, leaving the on‑chain dimension of the market unquantified. Consequently, analysis of liquidity or large‑wallet movements must await further data.
The $1 billion trading volume underscores Polymarket’s role as a leading venue for World Cup prediction trading, while the $50 welcome bonuses aim to expand its user base as the tournament heats up. Whether the influx of new participants will materially affect odds or market depth remains to be seen.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 2 outlets · Jun 17, 2026 · How we report
Common metrics include active addresses, transaction volume, exchange inflows/outflows, number of token holders, and activity of large wallets.
Nansen focuses on wallet analytics and tracking large investors' behavior, while Glassnode provides a broader set of network metrics and visual dashboards.
Limitations include the complexity of interpreting data without expertise, the need to consider external market factors, and the risk of misinterpretation.