XRP Price Holds $1 Support Level Amid Declining Exchange Supply

XRP is trading above the $1.00 support level as a reduction in exchange-held supply and renewed spot ETF inflows help the asset stabilize following a 50% decline in 2026 [1, 2]. The token’s ability to maintain this floor is critical for investors gauging whether Ripple’s ecosystem strategy can overcome broader market headwinds that have seen Bitcoin and Ethereum fall by 26% and 35% respectively this year [1, 2].

Liquidity and whale activity

The recent price stabilization coincides with a contraction in available supply on major exchanges. Binance exchange balances fell to 2.62 billion XRP as of Tuesday, down from 2.63 billion the previous day [2]. Analysts note that lower exchange reserves typically signal reduced immediate sell-side pressure, which can support price recovery if the trend persists [2].

Simultaneously, large-volume holders—defined as those holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP—increased their collective exposure to 18% of the total circulating supply as of Tuesday, up from approximately 17% on August 12 [3]. While this accumulation suggests institutional or "whale" interest, the broader technical outlook remains cautious. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering around 38, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero, indicating that the asset is still experiencing persistent downside pressure despite the recent bounce [2].

Technical hurdles and market context

XRP currently trades beneath several key moving averages that serve as significant overhead resistance. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at $1.07, while the 100-day and 200-day EMAs are positioned at $1.15 and $1.34, respectively [2]. To shift the current bearish bias, bulls must first reclaim the descending trendline break area near $1.06 [3].

The project’s long-term valuation, which currently stands at $62 billion, remains tied to Ripple’s ability to execute its ecosystem vision, including the expansion of stablecoin platforms and decentralized finance applications [1]. While the regulatory environment has clarified following the conclusion of an SEC investigation and the launch of XRP-backed ETFs, the market’s appetite for crypto assets has waned compared to the record highs observed in 2025 [1].

What to watch

• Resistance Levels: Watch for a decisive move above the $1.06 trendline break and the 50-day EMA at $1.07 to confirm a shift in momentum [2].
• Exchange Balances: Monitor whether the decline in Binance exchange reserves continues, as this serves as a proxy for immediate sell-side liquidity [2].
• Support Floor: Observe if the $0.99 to $1.00 range holds; a failure to maintain this level could lead to further testing of lower price floors [2].

The central question for the asset remains whether Ripple can successfully transition from a cross-border payment network to a broader decentralized platform. Without realizing this long-term vision, the project faces difficulty justifying its current valuation in a market that has become increasingly sensitive to broader crypto-asset volatility [1].