Bitcoin near $81,000 as ETF inflows boost supply squeeze

Bitcoin is trading at roughly $81,000, about 35% under its October 2025 all‑time high of $126,000, as spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and corporate treasury purchases tighten on‑chain supply【1】. The price level matters because it sits near the $80‑$85 K range that analysts see as the next support‑to‑resistance corridor for the remainder of the 2025‑2026 market cycle.

ETF inflows tighten supply

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have amassed $106 billion in total assets, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone holding $66.9 billion and accounting for 66% of the market【1】. In April 2026 the ETFs absorbed roughly 19,000 BTC over a nine‑day streak—nine times the daily new supply from miners—removing a sizable chunk of coins from exchanges and creating a scarcity premium that could push price higher.

Corporate treasury buying adds a second leg

Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, increased its stash to 818,869 BTC (about 3.8% of the 21 million‑coin supply) and maintains an average cost of $75,543 per coin【2】. The firm added nearly 179,000 BTC since October 2025, illustrating strong institutional demand that further reduces circulating supply.

Halving cycle context

Every Bitcoin halving historically yields a price peak 12‑18 months later. The most recent halving on 20 April 2024 was followed by the $126,000 high in October 2025, fitting the pattern. Standard Chartered and Bernstein project a $150,000 target by year‑end, requiring an 88% gain from the current $81,000 level【1】. Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer, however, argues the October 2025 peak may be the cycle top, with 2026 likely to be “dormant” and price stabilising between $65,000 and $75,000【1】.

Retail activity shows mixed signals

On‑chain data indicate a modest rebound in retail‑size transaction volume, rising from a low of –8.2% on 5 April to +6.31% on 6 May, before settling near +4.38% on 12 May while Bitcoin hovered at $80,625【2】. Although retail flow has improved, it remains below February’s levels, suggesting that broader market sentiment is still neutral‑to‑fearful.

What to watch

• $85,000 resistance – a sustained close above this level could signal the start of a new rally.
• CLARITY Act vote – legislative outcome expected later in 2026; approval could unlock further ETF inflows.
• Strategy’s buying pace – continued accumulation above the $75,543 average cost would reinforce the supply squeeze.

The price now sits at a pivotal juncture where ETF‑driven scarcity and corporate treasury buying could extend the halving‑cycle rally, but divergent analyst views on whether 2025 marked the peak keep the outlook uncertain.