Bitcoin on‑chain metrics signal later bull stage, terminal price near

Bitcoin’s on‑chain data now places the terminal price metric above $185,000 and trending toward $200,000, suggesting several more months of upward price action as the current bull cycle matures【1】.

On‑chain signals of a late‑stage bull

The Terminal Price metric, which blends Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) with Bitcoin’s supply, has historically forecasted cycle peaks. Its current level above $185k—well above the $100k milestone that marked the recent rally—implies the market still has room to climb before a peak, with analysts projecting a move toward $200k【1】.

The Puell Multiple, which compares daily miner revenue to its 365‑day average, has risen back above the critical 1.0 threshold. Historically, crossing this line signals the onset of the later bull phase and often precedes exponential price gains, a pattern observed in all prior Bitcoin bull runs【1】.

Meanwhile, the MVRV Z‑Score sits around 3.00, still beneath the red‑zone levels that have signaled tops in past cycles. This suggests that, despite recent price gains, the market is not yet in a euphoric overbought state, leaving upside potential intact【1】.

Supporting metrics and market context

Active Address Sentiment shows a modest cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50k to $100k, indicating a healthy consolidation rather than a bearish shift. This pause may set the stage for sustained long‑term growth【1】.

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has risen, reflecting increased profit‑taking and hinting that the cycle may be entering its latter stages. However, the growing popularity of Bitcoin ETFs and derivatives could dampen SOPR’s reliability, as investors move assets out of self‑custody【1】.

Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple is slightly overheated, a condition that historically precedes major price peaks by several months. In the 2017 cycle, VDD flagged overbought conditions nearly a year before the top, suggesting a similar timeline could unfold this cycle【1】.

What to watch

• Price resistance: Monitor the $150,000–$200,000 range as potential ceiling levels for the current cycle.
• On‑chain triggers: A rise of the VDD Multiple into the red zone or a sustained MVRV Z‑Score above 4 could signal an imminent peak.
• Regulatory developments: Decisions on Bitcoin ETFs or major derivative products may shift SOPR dynamics and affect on‑chain profit metrics.

These on‑chain indicators collectively point to Bitcoin entering the later stages of its bull market, with several months of upside possible before a potential peak near $200k. The exact timing will hinge on whether overbought signals intensify and how regulatory actions influence market flows.