XRP price slides despite $1.47 bn ETF inflow streak

XRP dropped to a year‑low of $1.03 on June 25, a roughly 20% decline in the past month, even as spot ETFs have amassed $1.47 bn in net inflows over eight consecutive weeks [1]. The disconnect matters to investors watching whether institutional accumulation can reverse the broader crypto sell‑off.

Institutional buying vs. price pressure

Spot XRP ETFs have recorded fresh cash for eight weeks straight, a pace faster than any coin since Ethereum’s launch, yet weekly inflows average under $10 m and peaked at only $23 m [1]. With a market cap near $65 bn, those amounts are a drop in the bucket—comparable to “a cup of water in a swimming pool.” Consequently, the total holdings of the funds fell from about $995 m to $934 m as the token’s price fell faster than the money arrived [1].

Supply‑side dynamics add further strain. Exchange‑available XRP shrank from 3.76 bn in October 2025 to roughly 1.6 bn—a seven‑year low—largely because ETFs locked away about 970 m XRP and long‑term holders moved coins off‑exchange [2]. Even with half the tradable supply gone, price has not rallied because broader demand remains muted amid high inflation, elevated U.S. interest rates, and a falling Bitcoin market (BTC down ~20% from the $70k‑$58k range) [2].

Tokenomics and future catalysts

Ripple’s escrow continues to release 200‑300 m XRP each month, a supply flow that dwarfs the weekly ETF inflows (e.g., June’s $47 m) and further dilutes any upward pressure [1]. Analysts point to the upcoming CLARITY Act, slated for Senate consideration on July 13, as a potential catalyst that could trigger $4‑$8 bn of additional ETF inflows—levels that might finally move the price [2].

What to watch

• Price thresholds: $1.10 resistance (recent high) and $0.90 support (mid‑month low).
• Monthly escrow release: 200‑300 m XRP each month; a larger release could outpace inflows.
• Regulatory outcome: Senate vote on the CLARITY Act on July 13, which could unlock multi‑billion‑dollar ETF inflows.

The current pattern shows institutions quietly accumulating XRP, but the scale of weekly buying is far too small to offset a shrinking yet still sizable supply and a market dominated by macro‑economic headwinds. Whether the CLARITY Act or a surge in institutional inflows can tip the balance remains the key open question.