Direct Reduced Iron market to hit $96.4 bn by 2034, 7.5% CAGR

The global direct reduced iron (DRI) market is forecast to reach $96.4 bn by 2034, up from $46.8 bn in 2024, implying a 7.5% compound annual growth rate through the forecast period【1】. This expansion matters for steelmakers seeking lower‑carbon feedstock and for investors tracking the shift toward gas‑based and hydrogen‑based ironmaking.

Growth drivers and regional split

The surge is anchored by rising steel demand, especially in infrastructure projects, and by policy incentives that favor low‑carbon production routes. Natural‑gas‑based DRI, highlighted by the MIDREX‑Clariant partnership announced in April 2025, promises roughly one ton of CO₂ saved per ton of steel, reinforcing its appeal in regions with strict emissions rules【1】. Government programs such as India’s ₹5,000 crn Green Steel Mission further subsidize “green DRI” projects, expanding the addressable market.

Regionally, North America is expected to lead due to abundant natural‑gas supplies and strong environmental regulations, while Europe benefits from circular‑economy initiatives and a robust automotive sector. The Asia‑Pacific corridor remains a growth hotspot, driven by rapid urbanisation and industrialisation【1】.

Operational efficiency benchmarks

Operational data from Jindal Steel Oman’s Sohar plant illustrate the efficiency gains underpinning market optimism. By May 2026 the plant produced 185,710 mt of DRI in a single month, exceeding its design capacity by 33% and operating at an average 249.6 mt per hour【2】. The integrated gas‑based reduction and electric‑arc furnace (EAF) system achieved a record 235,112 mt of liquid steel in a month, with a charge mix of 61% hot DRI, underscoring the commercial viability of fully integrated DRI‑EAF chains.

Global DRI output reached 140.8 mt in 2024, a 3.8% year‑over‑year increase and the highest level on record, outpacing the modest 1% growth in crude steel production over the same period【2】. The Midrex process alone contributed 54.1% of total DRI, and 80.1% within shaft‑furnace operations, highlighting technology concentration.

What to watch

• Capacity expansions: New gas‑based DRI projects announced in the Middle East and North Africa could shift the supply balance, especially if natural‑gas pricing remains favourable.
• Policy shifts: Updates to green‑steel incentives in India, the United States, and the European Union may accelerate adoption of hydrogen‑based DRI, affecting long‑term demand.
• Operational benchmarks: Replication of Jindal Steel Oman’s 33% over‑capacity performance at other sites would signal broader efficiency gains and could tighten the global DRI supply curve.

The projected near‑doubling of market value reflects a structural transition toward lower‑carbon steelmaking. Whether policy support and technological rollout can sustain the 7.5% CAGR remains the key question for the industry’s next decade.