XRP Price Analysis: Why Token Struggles Below $1.00 Support

XRP is trading at $0.99, struggling to hold the psychological $1.00 support level as the token faces a 47% decline since the start of the year [1, 2]. The asset’s inability to break above its recent range leaves it vulnerable to further downside, with technical indicators signaling a persistent bearish bias as it trades below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages [2].

Regulatory and Institutional Hurdles

The most significant catalyst for XRP remains the CLARITY Act, which would classify the token as a commodity under federal law [1]. The bill, which cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May with a 15-9 vote, is scheduled for a floor vote on September 15 following a cloture motion filed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune [1]. While a committee vote previously pushed XRP above $1.50, the token has since retreated, and analysts note that passing the Senate would require 60 votes, including support from at least 7 Democrats [1].

Institutional demand through spot ETFs has also cooled significantly. While these funds have attracted $1.51 billion since their November 2025 launch, weekly inflows dropped 93% to $1.01 million by early August [1]. Although retail participation remains steady—with perpetual futures open interest rising to 2.77 billion XRP on Monday—this activity has failed to offset the broader sell-off [3]. Furthermore, while Ripple has secured new cross-border payment deals and regulatory licenses in the EU, these institutional uses typically involve converting XRP immediately, creating little lasting demand for the token as an investment [1].

Technical Outlook

XRP’s technical structure remains under pressure, with the token trading below the descending trendline at $1.00 [2]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 35, indicating weak momentum, while the MACD remains slightly negative [2]. Derivatives data reflects this cautious sentiment, as the long-to-short ratio for XRP recently neared its lowest level in a month at 0.80, suggesting that traders are increasingly betting on further price declines [2].

What to watch

• September 15 Senate Vote: Monitor the floor vote on the CLARITY Act, as passage is viewed as the primary regulatory catalyst that could influence price volatility [1].
• ETF Flow Trends: Watch for any reversal in the 93% decline in weekly ETF inflows, which would be necessary to reduce available market supply [1].
• Key Resistance Levels: Observe whether the token can reclaim the $1.00 horizontal barrier and the 50-day EMA at $1.07, both of which currently act as significant overhead resistance [2].

With the circulating supply now at 62.7 billion tokens—significantly higher than during the 2018 market cycle—the capital required to move the price has increased, making aggressive targets like $5 a substantial challenge for the current market cap [1]. Whether XRP can find a floor at $1.00 or faces further price discovery depends on the intersection of legislative progress and a return of sustained institutional buying [1, 2].