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MicroStrategy (MSTR) trades near $155, entering oversold RSI territory and hitting $125‑$160 support. Dilution and MSCI index risk add pressure.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) slipped to about $155 on the day, pushing the 13‑period weekly RSI into oversold territory and landing the share price within its $125‑$160 medium‑term support band [2].
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Price | $155 |
| 24‑hour change | – ≈ 1% (price fell to $155) |
| Key level | $125‑$160 support zone |
| Catalyst | RSI oversold; dilution from share issuances and MSCI index‑removal risk [2] |
The weekly 13‑period RSI dropped below the oversold threshold, echoing past lows in June 2002, November 2012 and May 2022 that preceded strong rebounds. Those historical patterns suggest a potential floor, but the current environment differs because the stock is now a leveraged Bitcoin vehicle. Since early 2024, MicroStrategy’s basic share count has risen from roughly 158 million to 296 million, nearly doubling its dilution as it raises equity to buy more BTC [2]. This dilution erodes Bitcoin per share unless BTC price outpaces the share expansion, adding a structural headwind to the price.
Beyond technical factors, MSCI is reviewing “digital‑asset treasury” firms that hold more than 50 % of assets in crypto. MicroStrategy sits well above that threshold, and a final decision is due 15 January 2026, with any removal slated for the February 2026 index review. JPMorgan estimates passive outflows of $2.8 billion if MSTR is dropped from MSCI alone, potentially rising to $8.8 billion if other index families follow [2]. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative‑tightening cycle is winding down, which could ease liquidity pressure on Bitcoin and, by extension, on MSTR [2].
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Basic shares (early 2024) | ~158 million |
| Basic shares (now) | ~296 million |
| MSCI decision deadline | 15 Jan 2026 |
| Potential passive outflow | $2.8 bn (MSCI only) |
The convergence of an oversold technical signal, aggressive share dilution, and looming MSCI index risk creates a multi‑layered challenge for MicroStrategy. Whether the stock can rally from its current support will depend on Bitcoin’s price trajectory and the outcome of the MSCI review.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 2 outlets · Jun 24, 2026 · How we report
As of the latest filings, MicroStrategy holds roughly 446,400 bitcoin, valued at about $63.8 billion.
The net loss was driven almost entirely by an $8.32 billion unrealized markdown on its bitcoin holdings.
The company plans to potentially sell up to $5 billion of bitcoin to increase cash reserves and may use proceeds for stock repurchases.
Revenue grew 6.9% year‑over‑year to $122.4 million, slightly below analyst consensus of $122.9 million.
Analysts view the stock as a leveraged bitcoin proxy with a high beta (~3.55), meaning its price tends to amplify bitcoin’s movements.