Bitcoin price hits $105,780 as correlation chart signals shift

Bitcoin surged to $105,780 on May 29, while a Bitwise‑produced chart showed Bitcoin’s 60‑day rolling correlation with 10‑year U.S. Treasury‑bond futures falling to the most negative level ever recorded, a signal that traditional portfolio allocations may be rewiring around the cryptocurrency [2].

Correlation collapse drives the narrative

André Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, highlighted the chart on May 29, noting the 60‑day correlation between Bitcoin and 10‑year Treasury futures had turned sharply negative, the deepest reading on record. He framed the move as a “watershed moment” for asset allocation, suggesting that investors may be swapping U.S. Treasuries for Bitcoin as a hedge against sovereign‑default risk [2]. The same report linked the shift to a broader “macro fault line” where long‑duration Treasuries have suffered a >40 % drawdown since 2022, and foreign reserve managers have been trimming U.S. debt positions [2].

Market context and bearish outlooks

While the correlation chart points to growing institutional interest, a separate Forbes column warned that Bitcoin could still slide toward a $30,000‑$40,000 bottom. The author, who has previously called Bitcoin down in 2017, 2021 and 2025, argues that geopolitical headwinds—particularly sanctions‑evasion use by Iran and North Korea—could prompt U.S. policy tightening and erode Bitcoin’s utility, potentially pulling as much as 25 % of mining hash rate offline [1]. The same author’s latest chart places the next support zone between $30,000 and $40,000, a range that would represent a 70 % drop from the current price [1].

Flow and on‑chain dynamics

Bitcoin’s recent price rally has been underpinned by record ETF inflows: spot‑Bitcoin ETFs attracted a net $6.35 billion in May, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone reaching $71 billion in assets under management [2]. These inflows arrived as Treasury auctions struggled, with a 20‑year bond pricing above the when‑issued yield, prompting investors to demand higher compensation for duration risk [2]. On‑chain metrics were not detailed in the sources, but the influx of institutional capital suggests a tightening of supply on exchanges, which can amplify price moves.

What to watch

• $105,000 resistance – a break above could trigger further upside; a failure may pull price back toward $100,000.
• $30,000‑$40,000 support – the range identified as a potential bottom in the bearish forecast; sustained trading below $35,000 would reinforce the downside case.
• Correlation trend – any reversal of the record‑low Treasury‑Bitcoin correlation, especially if it moves back toward zero, could signal a shift in investor sentiment.

The juxtaposition of a historic correlation collapse with a bearish price target underscores a key tension: institutional inflows are boosting Bitcoin’s short‑term price, yet geopolitical and regulatory risks could still drive it toward a deeper correction. The market’s next move will hinge on whether the Treasury‑Bitcoin decoupling sustains or reverses, and how policy pressures affect Bitcoin’s core use cases.