Schwab strategist says $60,000 mining cost could set Bitcoin’s bottom

Bitcoin’s price has hovered near $60,000, a level that Charles Schwab’s digital‑currency strategist Jim Ferraioli says matches the lowest cost of producing a new coin for the most efficient miners [1]. He argues that this “energy floor” has historically acted as a bottom in deep bear markets, and that the current price aligns with both that cost and Bitcoin’s 200‑week moving average.

Key takeaways

• The cheapest miners, using next‑gen ASICs and $0.07/kWh power, estimate a production cost of about $60,000 per BTC [1].
• Less efficient operators face costs near $95,000 per BTC, creating a valuation range of $60‑$95 k [1].
• Analysts on CoinTelegraph note that a sustained move above $88,000 is needed to confirm a bottom, with resistance at $85‑$88 k [3].
• Bernstein projects a bullish trajectory to $200,000 by early 2026, citing institutional inflows and ETF growth [2].
• Current average mining cost across the network is roughly $85,600, meaning the sector is operating at a loss while price sits in the mid‑$60 k range [1].

Energy economics as a price floor

Ferraioli’s analysis centers on the physics of Bitcoin’s energy consumption. For miners that run large‑scale facilities with the latest ASIC hardware and secure wholesale electricity at $0.07 per kilowatt‑hour, the all‑in cost to mine one Bitcoin is about $60,000 [1]. This figure is derived from Glassnode data and Schwab’s May 2026 research report. Miners with older equipment or higher power rates incur costs up to $95,000 per coin, establishing a cost corridor that frames the market’s current valuation range [1].

When spot prices dip toward the $60,000 mark, Ferraioli expects the least efficient miners to shut down, prompting a drop in network hash rate. Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment would then lower the cost of production, allowing the remaining, more efficient miners to stay profitable. Historically, such a contraction has preceded recoveries rather than deeper collapses [1]. As of May 2026, the average mining cost across all operators sits near $85,600, indicating the network is collectively running at a loss while price remains in the mid‑$60 ks [1].

Contrasting market views

Other market observers are less focused on the energy floor and more on price momentum. CoinTelegraph analysts argue that Bitcoin must reclaim $88,000 as support before a bottom can be confirmed, citing recent resistance at $85‑$88 k and the “active realized price” of $85.2 k as structural thresholds [3]. They warn that rallies below this level may encounter distribution pressure from long‑term holders cashing out profits.

Meanwhile, Bernstein’s research team paints a markedly bullish picture, forecasting a rise to $200,000 by early 2026. The firm attributes the optimism to growing institutional participation, with Bitcoin ETFs now holding over $150 billion and BlackRock’s IBIT alone managing more than $84 billion of BTC [2]. This outlook contrasts sharply with the cost‑based bottom scenario, highlighting the divergent lenses through which analysts view Bitcoin’s trajectory.