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UBS raises its 2024 S&P 500 year‑end target to 8,100, above consensus of 7,850, citing earnings strength and AI‑driven growth. See how the move compares to
UBS now expects the S&P 500 to close 2024 at 8,100, up more than 8% from its July‑21 level, a jump from its earlier 7,500 target and above the 7,850 average forecast from the CNBC strategist survey【2】.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| New target | 8,100 |
| Prior UBS target | 7,500 |
| Consensus forecast | 7,850 |
| Index level at release | ~7,440 |
Strategist Keith Parker attributes the lift to “tech‑led earnings growth” that he expects to continue into an AI‑driven upcycle, with semiconductor backlogs and broader capex supporting profit expansion【2】. He also notes that the market has already priced in “max pressure” from the U.S.–Iran conflict and policy uncertainty, which he believes are largely resolved【2】. The bank projects earnings growth of over 28% for the year, well above consensus, and expects the S&P 500 multiple to stay roughly 10% below last year’s level, keeping valuations attractive despite higher rates【2】.
At the time of the announcement the S&P 500 was trading around 7,440, meaning the new target implies a double‑digit year‑end return after the index’s 8.6% year‑to‑date gain【1】. UBS’s 2026 target of 6,800, a modest 6.4% upside from the Friday close, signals a more cautious near‑term outlook, with the firm warning that the index could stay below current levels through the end of 2025 before a recovery in early 2026【1】. The upgrade places UBS’s forecast second only to Oppenheimer’s 8,150, highlighting a bullish tilt among the most optimistic strategists【2】.
UBS’s new target underscores confidence in earnings momentum and AI‑driven growth, but the near‑term warning and modest 2026 outlook suggest the firm sees upside hinging on sustained corporate profit expansion and a stable macro backdrop.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 5 outlets · Jul 21, 2026 · How we report
Goldman’s highlighted stocks, such as Kodiak Gas Services (3%) and The Williams Cos (2.8%), have dividend yields above the S&P 500's current yield of 1.04%.
Goldman expects roughly 15% EBITDA growth for Kodiak through 2030, driven by its compression business and expansion into behind‑the‑meter power generation.
According to FactSet, 88% of the roughly 50 S&P 500 companies that have reported have exceeded analyst earnings expectations.