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Gold holds near $4,012 per ounce as May PCE matches forecasts, pushing September Fed hike odds down to 63% and easing dollar and yield pressure.
Spot gold was trading around $4,012 an ounce on June 25, up 0.36% on the session, after the U.S. May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report came in line with expectations and trimmed the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike from 68% to 63% [2].
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Gold price | $4,012/oz (+0.36%) |
| May PCE MoM | 0.4% (vs. 0.5% forecast) |
| Fed hike odds (Sept) | 63% (down from 68%) |
| 10‑yr Treasury yield | ~4.4% (steady) |
| USD index | 101.64 (near one‑year high) |
The headline PCE rose 0.4% month‑on‑month, matching the consensus and falling short of the 0.5% forecast, while the core PCE was also in line at 0.3% [1]. The modest print left the Fed’s policy stance largely unchanged—its target range remained 3.50%‑3.75% after the June 17 meeting—but it shifted projections toward at least one more hike in 2026, keeping real‑rate expectations elevated [1]. The softer inflation number eased pressure on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, which hovered near the 4.4% area, allowing gold to recover from a four‑session sell‑off [1].
Gold’s price action stayed above the $4,000 support level, a key battleground identified by analysts, while the next resistance sits near $4,023‑$4,090, with a longer‑term target around $4,357 [1]. Silver mirrored the move, trading near $58.13 an ounce, up 1.44% [1]. In equities, Nasdaq‑100 futures rose 2.3% and S&P 500 futures 0.8%, reflecting optimism that the Fed may not need to tighten aggressively [1]. Oil prices slipped, with Brent at $72.24 a barrel, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalized, removing some of the safe‑haven premium that had supported gold [1].
Gold’s hold above $4,000 shows that the market is still balancing inflation‑driven rate‑hike risk against a still‑elevated dollar. The next data points will determine whether the metal can break its bearish bias or slide back toward the $3,900 support zone.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 4 outlets · Jun 26, 2026 · How we report
Gold is priced in US Dollars, so a stronger dollar makes the metal more expensive for overseas buyers, typically suppressing demand and price.
A Death Cross occurs when a short-term moving average, such as the 50-day SMA, crosses below a long-term moving average, like the 200-day SMA, which is often interpreted as a signal of a deepening downtrend.
Central banks purchase gold to diversify their reserves, improve the perceived solvency of their economies, and provide a store of value during turbulent times.
Yes, gold is widely viewed as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against inflation because it does not rely on any specific government or issuer.