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Gold at $3,990 and silver at $57.5 per ounce on June 25, with the dollar firming on Fed rate‑hike expectations, push precious metals toward multi‑month lows.
Gold fell to $3,990.17 per ounce on Thursday, breaking back below the $4,000 psychological barrier after a $169 drop on Wednesday, while silver traded around $57.5 an ounce, still under $60 [2]. The moves come as a stronger U.S. dollar and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike erode the metals’ safe‑haven appeal.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Gold price | $3,990.17/oz (down ~7.5% YTD) |
| Silver price | $57.49/oz (down ~20% YTD) |
| Dollar index | Highest in more than a year, boosting yields |
| Treasury yields | Rising on higher‑rate expectations, pressuring non‑yielding assets |
The June 24 sell‑off saw Comex gold slip below $4,000 for the first time since mid‑November, landing at $3,980 and widening June’s loss to 13%, on track for the biggest monthly decline in over a decade if the trend continues [1]. Silver futures fell $4 to $58, a level last seen in December 2025, and have shed 38% since the February war onset [1]. Both metals have been hit by a “hawkish tone” from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose first rate‑setting meeting signaled a greater willingness to keep policy restrictive if inflation stays elevated [1][2].
Higher real yields and a firming dollar make dollar‑priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies, further reducing demand for gold and silver, which offer no yield [1]. Major banks have trimmed gold forecasts—Goldman Sachs cut its spot‑gold target by $500 to $4,900/oz, and Deutsche Bank lowered its Q4 estimate by 17% [1]. Yet central‑bank buying remains a bright spot, with institutions adding to holdings at the fastest pace in more than a year [1].
Macquarie strategists note that the rally’s momentum has stalled, with the price trajectory now tied to inflation and Fed policy rather than geopolitical safe‑haven demand [2]. They price a Fed rate hike by September into the market, and expect gold to stay range‑bound for the rest of 2026 before trending lower in 2027, forecasting an average spot price of $4,641/oz for the year but a decline to $4,200 in 2027 [2]. Silver is projected to reach $70/oz by year‑end, then fall to $65 by 2027, reflecting its higher sensitivity to macro‑driven price swings [2].
The metals’ retreat underscores how quickly safe‑haven demand can evaporate when higher‑yield assets and a strong dollar dominate the macro landscape, leaving gold and silver vulnerable to further downside unless a new shock revives investor appetite.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 2 outlets · Jun 25, 2026 · How we report
Spot gold is trading around $3,990 per ounce, just below the $4,000 threshold.
Most central banks view gold as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk, and nearly 90% expect to increase their gold reserves, which supports demand despite short‑term price pressure.
Macquarie projects a 35% rise in 2026 followed by a drop to $4,200 in 2027 and continued declines through 2030, while OCBC warns that higher real yields and hawkish Fed rhetoric could keep gold vulnerable in the near term.