XRP price near $1.10, analysts say double‑digit target unlikely this

XRP sits at roughly $1.10, about 70% under its July 2023 high of $3.65, and despite recent Ripple licensing wins, the token has failed to break the $1.20 resistance that would end its year‑long downtrend【1】.

Why the price is stuck

Ripple’s recent European license and Japan’s RLUSD stablecoin approval should have bolstered demand, yet on‑chain activity tells a different story. New wallet creations fell to 2,130 on July 11—the lowest since November 2024—and daily active wallets sit near annual lows, indicating dwindling user adoption【1】. Institutional interest has also faded: XRP ETF inflows dropped from $131.94 million in May to $59 million in June and are now near zero【1】. These flow shortages keep the token from attracting fresh buyers even as Ripple’s software deals generate revenue without moving XRP.

How big a double‑digit rally would have to be

A $10 price would value XRP at about $625 billion (62.47 billion circulating tokens), surpassing Ethereum’s all‑time market cap and leaving Bitcoin as the only crypto ever larger【1】. Even a $20 target would imply a $1.2 trillion valuation, more than half of today’s total crypto market of $2.2 trillion【2】. Achieving such multiples would require a 9‑ to 17‑fold price jump from current levels, far beyond XRP’s historical peaks of $3.84 in 2018 and $3.65 last July【1】【2】.

Supply dynamics add pressure. Ripple releases up to 1 billion XRP each month from escrow; while most is re‑locked, the circulating supply still climbs by several hundred million tokens monthly. If supply reaches 70 billion in the next few years, a $10 price would push total market value toward $700 billion【1】.

Timing and regulatory hurdles

XRP’s biggest moves have historically followed Bitcoin’s halving cycles, with the next halving slated for April 2028 and market peaks typically 18 months later. That points to a potential top in 2029‑2030, the earliest window for a double‑digit rally according to the analysis【1】. However, the CLARITY Act—proposed legislation that would cement XRP’s commodity status—has yet to secure enough Senate votes and may not pass before the 2026 election cycle ends【1】. Even if enacted, the estimate is that it could draw about $5 billion into XRP ETFs within a year, far short of the billions needed for a $10‑plus price move【1】.

What to watch

• $1.20 resistance – a breakout could signal the end of the current downtrend.
• ETF inflows – monthly net inflows above $100 million would indicate renewed institutional interest.
• CLARITY Act Senate vote – any movement toward passage before the August 2026 recess could shift market sentiment.

XRP’s fundamentals—new licenses and software partnerships—are improving, but without a surge in on‑chain usage or substantial institutional inflows, a double‑digit price remains a long‑term prospect rather than an imminent target. The open question is whether regulatory clarity and a favorable halving‑driven cycle will align before the token’s supply continues to expand.