China Oil Buying Pause and Global Price Shifts

Brent crude oil futures fluctuated around $95 per barrel on June 2, 2026, as traders weighed conflicting signals regarding a potential US-Iran peace agreement and the status of the Strait of Hormuz [1]. While prices have dropped 16.53% over the past month, they remain 45.55% higher than a year ago, a volatility driven by supply disruptions and shifting demand from major consumers [1]. Recent reports indicate Chinese refiners have reduced overseas purchases, causing a diversion of tankers toward India as regional supply chains adjust to the crisis [2][5].

Key takeaways

• Brent crude traded near $95 on June 2, 2026, remaining significantly higher than the previous year despite a monthly decline [1].
• Chinese refiners have cut overseas oil purchases due to price surges, relying on inventories estimated at over a billion barrels [2].
• At least seven oil tankers originally bound for China have diverted to India, where Russian crude imports surged nearly 50% in March [5].
• Trading Economics forecasts Brent to trade at $105.62 in 12 months [1].

Geopolitical Risks and Price Fluctuations

Market uncertainty persists as President Donald Trump stated that a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within a week, though Iranian news agencies raised doubts about progress in negotiations [1]. The waterway is critical for global energy, with the potential to block up to 15 million barrels of crude oil daily if the halt continues [3]. Analysts have warned that in a worst-case scenario, oil prices could surge to $100 a barrel, posing trouble for developed economies already facing inflation and cost of living crises [3]. Despite these risks, Trading Economics global macro models expect Brent to trade at $92.30 by the end of the current quarter before rising to $105.62 in 12 months [1].

Tanker Diversions and Asian Demand Shifts

As prices surged, data from analytics firm Kpler indicated that Chinese refiners reduced their purchases of oil from overseas [2]. This pause has led to visible shifts in shipping logistics, with at least seven tankers carrying Russian crude switching destinations mid-voyage from China to India [5]. One vessel, the Aqua Titan, originally headed for the Chinese port of Rizhao, turned toward India's New Mangalore Port