Quarter of Trapped Oil Tankers Escape Iran War

Roughly one-quarter of the non-Iranian large oil tankers trapped inside the Persian Gulf following the outbreak of the Iran war have managed to escape, according to shipping data [1]. The vessels have slipped out in a slow trickle, utilizing unconventional maneuvers to navigate the shuttered Strait of Hormuz [1]. Meanwhile, the U.S. government has extended a waiver on Russian oil sanctions for another 30 days to address global supply shortages caused by the conflict [2].

Key takeaways

• Twenty-nine of 109 large non-Iranian tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf have successfully escaped [1].
• Vessels are using stealth tactics like "going dark" and traveling at night to avoid threats [1].
• The U.S. granted a 30-day extension for importing Russian oil already at sea to ease supply shortages [2].
• European oil majors Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies reported strong first-quarter profits due to trading volatility [3].

Stealthy escapes and risky transits

Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg shows that 29 of the 109 larger vessels capable of hauling 700,000 barrels or more have crossed the chokepoint since the conflict erupted on Feb. 28 [1]. To avoid the threat of rockets launched from shore, many ships have resorted to crossing under the cover of darkness or switching off their Automatic Identification System to broadcast their position, a practice known as "going dark" [1]. Chevron Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth noted that the company currently has six vessels in the Gulf under charter, though ship owners ultimately decide whether to attempt the transit [1].

The situation is complicated by Iran's attempt to establish a "toll booth" for ships crossing the strait, demanding fees of as much as $2 million for a single transit near its shore [1]. It is not clear how successful Tehran has been in collecting these fees [1]. While the escaped tankers have transported roughly 520,000 barrels a day, this flow remains a fraction of the crude and products still locked inside the Gulf and is eclipsed by alternative pipelines used by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates [1].

Global market and policy responses

The successful transits arrive as the global market faces record depletion of inventory buffers, with the escaped oil snapped up by buyers [1]. In response to the supply squeeze, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a 30-day extension allowing countries to import Russian oil already in tankers at sea [2]. This policy reversal aims to aid poorer nations and reduce shortages that are driving up prices, though it carries the risk of helping Russia finance its war in Ukraine [2].

The market volatility has also significantly benefited European oil majors. TotalEnergies, Shell, and BP all pointed to robust trading results as they reported stronger-than-expected profits through the first three months of the year [3]. Analysts note that these European firms have a competitive advantage over U.S. rivals like Exxon Mobil and Chevron during periods of high volatility, such as the current conflict, because their large trading organizations can capitalize on rapid price swings [3].